Bush Deficit in Horse Race Unusual for Incumbents

From Gallup:

Gallup’s most recent trial heat of presidential preferences, from a Jan. 29-Feb. 1 poll, shows President George W. Bush trailing Massachusetts senator and Democratic front-runner John Kerry by a 53% to 46% margin among likely voters. A review of historical trial-heat data from past elections shows it is rare for an incumbent president to be trailing at this stage in a campaign. At the same time, in the eight elections analyzed here, there have been campaigns in which the incumbent led in February but was defeated for re-election in November. As such, it is hard to draw any inferences as to what Bush’s current standing means for his re-election prospects.

Gallup has a long history of asking presidential trial-heat questions in election years. There are comparable data from as far back as 1948 for elections in which an incumbent president was pitted against his eventual challenger in January or February of the election year. While it is not clear at this point who the Democratic nominee will be, Gallup’s historical polling shows it is rare for an incumbent to be trailing any named opponent at this early stage in the election year. The only other time an incumbent trailed his eventual challenger (or, for that matter, any other possible opponent tested) at this stage in the campaign was in 1976, when Democrat Jimmy Carter held a slight edge over incumbent Gerald Ford, 48% to 46%. (Carter eventually defeated Ford in a close election.)

Epiphany

Blogger Brad DeLong, Professor of Economics at UC Berkeley, found two clever ways to describe blogger Andrew Sullivan’s seeming change-of-heart about Bush after the Meet the Press interview.

“I’m shocked! Shocked to discover that gambling is going on in here!” “Your winnings, sir.” That’s Claude Rains in Casablanca. Lo and behold, Andrew Sullivan has his own Claude Rains moment this morning as he discovers that George W. Bush is either a bald-faced liar or “out of it… frighteningly unaware” of the most basic facts about his administration’s policies…

This is a full 100% Road to Damascus moment…

Read some of what Sullivan had to say — Attention Deficit.

Respectful of Otters

New discovery — the blog Respectful of Otters. If this post is typical, this blog might be worth watching.

Sisyphus Shrugged has news of the inevitable class-action lawsuit, filed by a Tennessee woman who complains she suffered “outrage, anger, embarrassment and serious injury” from the brief sight of Janet Jackson’s tit, sufficient to require three years’ worth of the total revenues of CBS, MTV, and Viacom in order to assuage her pain. Heaven help her if she ever accidentally stumbles into a meeting of the La Leche League.

The Last Juror

NewMexiKen sat down with Grisham’s The Last Juror just before 3; got up to stretch, etc., for a 20-30 minutes at 6; finished it about 8:20. I’d say that’s a novel with a pretty good hook.

If you like his work, you’ll like this one more than most.

Jesus is my co-pilot

USATODAY.com:

An American Airlines pilot asked Christians on his flight to identify themselves and discuss their religion with non-Christian passengers, the airline said….

American’s Flight 34 was headed from Los Angeles to New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport on Friday when the pilot asked Christians on board to raise their hands, Wagner said.

The pilot, whose name was not released, told the airline that he then suggested the other passengers use the flight time to talk to the Christians about their faith, Wagner said.

The pilot also told passengers he would be available for discussion at the end of the flight.

What would Miss Beadle think?

From the Los Angeles TimesPutting Knowledge in Their Grasp

Students at a Newport Beach intermediate school will soon stop passing notes in class. Instead, they’ll beam them.

All 625 seventh-graders at Ensign Intermediate School received hand-held computers last week.

With the personal digital assistants, once the toys of tech-savvy executives, the students will be able to download books, write reports and quietly exchange written questions and answers with their teachers.

And those who care as much about appearances as they do academics will be able to check their hair, thanks to software that makes the device’s screen reflective….

In Sandy Asper’s English class, students already have begun writing essays on their PDAs, using miniature keyboards that plug into them. Their assignment is displayed on the board: write a five-paragraph essay about a favorite book. As students begin writing, the classroom quickly becomes a symphony of clicking and tapping.

Once finished, students beam their completed work to Asper’s PDA. The technology is similar to that of a television remote control, in which digital information is carried through an infrared light beam.

“I can’t tell you how excited I am,” said the 32-year veteran teacher. “It will be infinitely better.”

Asper said a question can now be answered simultaneously by all students, instead of the old-fashioned way of raising hands. She will be able to determine how many students knew the answer.

For instance, when her students read books downloaded onto their PDAs, Asper will be able to beam a reading question that will appear on their screens. Students will beam back their answers.

CJR Campaign Desk

CJR Campaign Desk, a fine group blog from Columbia Journalism Review, today launched “a brief, daily summary of notable commentary from the political blogosphere.” NewMexiKen provides the debut post in full.

The president’s Sunday interview with Tim Russert on NBC’s “Meet the Press” is the big issue in the blogosphere, and no one seems overly impressed with either participant.

Josh Marshall excoriates Tim Russert for not following up when the president declared that he had released all of his military records in 2000. It’s fair to say Marshall wasn’t blown away by the president’s performance.

Andrew Sullivan comments charitably on the administration’s “simple exhaustion factor. They’ve been thru an awful lot; they’re tired out; and it’s beginning to show.” Makes you wonder what the president would look like if he hadn’t grabbed some zzzz’s (google cached page) during the Superbowl halftime show.

David Adesnik on Oxblog points out that Russert’s questions, “while relatively tough … [were] also relatively predictable. How much you wanna bet that Bush’s prep team asked him almost exactly the same questions in their rehearsals for the Russert interview?”

Matthew Iglesias has got the goods on the questions Russert should have asked. And Bob Somerby at the Daily Howler asks, “What became of Bulldog Tim? That ‘dog’ didn’t bark, hunt or slobber.”

Calpundit has a document purporting to show that Bush was transferred to a Colorado-based National Guard unit in 1972 as a disciplinary action. Unsurprisingly, it raises more questions than it answers.

On the Kerry beat, Mickey Kaus continues to cling to the hope that the Massachusetts senator will lose. There’s “still plenty of time for feet to cool” on Kerry, he tells us, but even Kaus seems to have trouble buying his own arguments.

And Ryan Lizza, writing on his New Republic weblog Campaign Journal, convincingly dispels the notion that Edwards hasn’t gone negative on Kerry because he doesn’t want to damage his chances for the Number 2 spot. Rather, says Lizza, it’s because Edwards first needs to knock Clark and Dean out of the race and set up a head-to-head with Kerry. Then he’ll come out swinging.

Zachary Roth

Bill Veeck…

the man who brought a midget ((Eddie Gaedel) to bat in the major leagues, was born on this date in 1914.

Read about Gaedel’s time at the plate, told as the first chapter of Veeck’s autobiography, Veeck as in Wreck: “When Eddie went into that crouch, his strike zone was just about visible to the naked eye. I picked up a ruler and measured it for posterity. It was 1-1/2 inches. Marvelous.”

Veeck (it rhymes with wreck) died in 1986. He was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1991.

J.M. Coetzee…

was born in Cape Town, South Africa, on this date in 1940. Mr. Coetzee was the Nobel laureate for literature last year. The following is taken from the press release announcing the award.

The Nobel Prize in Literature for 2003 is awarded to the South African writer John Maxwell Coetzee

“who in innumerable guises portrays the surprising involvement of the outsider”.

J.M. Coetzee’s novels are characterised by their well-crafted composition, pregnant dialogue and analytical brilliance. But at the same time he is a scrupulous doubter, ruthless in his criticism of the cruel rationalism and cosmetic morality of western civilisation. His intellectual honesty erodes all basis of consolation and distances itself from the tawdry drama of remorse and confession. Even when his own convictions emerge to view, as in his defence of the rights of animals, he elucidates the premises on which they are based rather than arguing for them.

Coetzee’s interest is directed mainly at situations where the distinction between right and wrong, while crystal clear, can be seen to serve no end. Like the man in the famous Magritte painting who is studying his neck in a mirror, at the decisive moment Coetzee’s characters stand behind themselves, motionless, incapable of taking part in their own actions. But passivity is not merely the dark haze that devours personality, it is also the last resort open to human beings as they defy an oppressive order by rendering themselves inaccessible to its intentions. It is in exploring weakness and defeat that Coetzee captures the divine spark in man.

His earliest novel, Dusklands, was the first example of the capacity for empathy that has enabled Coetzee time and again to creep beneath the skin of the alien and the abhorrent. A man working for the American administration during the Vietnam war dreams of devising an unbeatable system of psychological warfare, while at the same time his private life disintegrates around him. His reflections are juxtaposed with a report on an expedition to explore the country of the native Africans, which purports to have been written by one of the 18th-century Boer pioneers. Two forms of misanthropy, one of them intellectual and megalomaniac, the other vital and barbaric, reflect each other.

One element in his next novel, In the Heart of the Country, is the portrayal of psychosis. A careworn spinster living with her father observes with distaste his love affair with a young coloured woman. She has fantasies of murdering both of them, but everything seems to indicate that she decides rather to immure herself in a perverse pact with the house servant. The actual sequence of events cannot be determined, as the reader’s only sources are her notes, where lies and truths, crudeness and refinement alternate capriciously line by line. The high-flown Edwardian literary style of the woman’s monologue harmonises strangely with the surrounding African landscape.

Waiting for the Barbarians is a political thriller in the tradition of Joseph Conrad, in which the idealist’s naivety opens the gates to horror. The playful metanovel Foe spins a yarn about the incompatibility and inseparability of literature and life, told by a woman who yearns to be part of a major narrative when in reality only one of minor importance is offered.

With Life and Times of Michael K, which has its roots in Defoe as well as in Kafka and Beckett, the impression that Coetzee is a writer of solitude becomes clearer. The novel deals with the flight of an insignificant citizen from growing disorder and impending war to a state of indifference to all needs and speechlessness that negates the logic of power.

The Master of Petersburg is a paraphrase of Dostoevsky’s life and fictional world. To die in one’s heart away from the world, the temptation that Coetzee’s imagined characters face, turns out to be the principle of the unconscionable liberty of terrorism. Here, the writer’s struggle with the problem of evil is tinged with demonology, an element that recurs in his most recently published work, Elizabeth Costello.

In Disgrace Coetzee involves us in the struggle of a discredited university teacher to defend his own and his daughter’s honour in the new circumstances that have arisen in South Africa after the collapse of white supremacy. The novel deals with a question that is central to his works: Is it possible to evade history?

His autobiographical T circles mainly around his father’s humiliation and the psychological cleavage it has caused the son, but the book also conveys a magic impression of life in the old-fashioned South African countryside with its eternal conflicts between the Boers and the English and between white and black. In its sequel, T, the writer dissects himself as a young man with a cruelty that is oddly consoling for anyone able to identify with him.

There is a great wealth of variety in Coetzee’s works. No two books ever follow the same recipe. Extensive reading reveals a recurring pattern, the downward spiralling journeys he considers necessary for the salvation of his characters. His protagonists are overwhelmed by the urge to sink but paradoxically derive strength from being stripped of all external dignity.

Coetzee was the first person to win two Booker Prizes, England’s top literary award, the first for Life and Times of Michael K in 1983 and the second for Disgrace in 1999. He is a frequent contributor to The New York Review of Books.

James Dean…

was born on this date in 1931.

James Dean was born February 8, 1931, in Marion, Indiana, to Winton and Mildred Dean. His father, a dental technician, moved the family to Los Angeles when Jimmy was five. He returned to the Midwest after his mother passed away and was raised by his aunt and uncle on their Indiana farm. After graduating from high school, he returned to California where he attended Santa Monica Junior College and UCLA. James Dean began acting with James Whitmore’s acting workshop, appeared in occasional television commercials, and played several roles in films and on stage. In the winter of 1951, he took Whitmore’s advice and moved to New York to pursue a serious acting career. He appeared in seven television shows, in addition to earning his living as a busboy in the theater district, before he won a small part in a Broadway play entitled See the Jaguar….

Dean continued his study at the Actors Studio, played short stints in television dramas, and returned to Broadway in The Immoralist (1954). This last appearance resulted in a screen test at Warner Brothers for the part of Cal Trask in the screen adaptation John Steinbeck’s novel East of Eden. He then returned to New York where he appeared in four more television dramas. After winning the role of Jim Stark in 1955’s Rebel Without A Cause, he moved to Hollywood.

In February, he visited his family in Fairmount with photographer Dennis Stock before returning to Los Angeles. In March, Jimmy celebrated his Eden success by purchasing his first Porsche and entered the Palm Springs Road Races. He began shooting Rebel Without A Cause that same month and Eden opened nationwide in April. In May, he entered the Bakersfield Race and finished shooting Rebel. He entered one more race, in Santa Barbara, before he joined the cast and crew of Giant in Marfa, Texas.

James Dean had one of the most spectacularly brief careers of any screen star. In just more than a year, and in only three films, Dean became a widely admired screen personality, a personification of the restless American youth of the mid-50’s, and an embodiment of the title of one of his film Rebel Without A Cause. En route to compete in a race in Salinas, James Dean was killed in a highway accident on September 30, 1955. James Dean was nominated for two Academy Awards, for his performances in East of Eden and Giant. Although he only made three films, they were made in just over one year’s time.

Source: The Official Site of James Dean

Jules Verne….

author of A Journey to the Center of the Earth, Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea, and Around the World in Eighty Days, was born in Nantes, France, on this date in 1828.

John Grisham…

was born in Jonesboro, Arkansas, on this date in 1955. His first success came with his second novel, The Firm, in 1991.

NewMexiKen has purchased a copy of Grisham’s latest, The Last Juror, and will provide a review soon.

Laura Ingalls Wilder…

was born near Pepin, Wisconsin, on this date in 1867. When she was 63-years-old she began writing about her pioneer childhood beginning with Little House in the Big Woods (1932) and Little House on the Prairie (1935).

The Franco-American Alliance

On this date in 1778, the United States and France signed the Treaty of Amity and Commerce. France recognized America as an independent nation and offered trade concessions. The two nations also signed a Treaty of Alliance, which stipulated that if France entered the war, neither country would lay down its arms until America won its independence, that neither would conclude peace with Britain without the consent of the other, and that each guaranteed the other’s possessions in America. This was the only bilateral defense treaty signed by the United States until 1949 (NATO).