Watershed II

Every day NewMexiKen gets snail mail from Republican U.S. Senate candidate Steve Pearce (the fun of registering Independent).

And every day I laugh and think, “Pearce, I sure hope you’re spending your own money on this trash.”

And every day I rip it half and toss it in the waste can.

As Kos says, if you know a pro-Bush Republican in danger of going under this election cycle, throw ’em an anvil.

What historians call a watershed

Helen (Babe) Walker, seventy-three years old, who lives in the Appalachian mining town of Glouster, Ohio …, writes:

“I think that the residents here in Glouster are getting accustomed to the fact that we will be having a black president. They think it is not a bad idea.”

And Roger Catt, the retired Wisconsin farmer who told me that “McCain is more of the same, and Obama is the end of life as we know it,” will be voting for the end of life as we know it.

George Packer

Social Security: we have always been at war with Eastasia

“But even in the middle of all that, it never occurred to me that a future presidential candidate would invent out of thin air a completely false story about how the privatization push failed.”

Paul Krugman amazed at John McCain’s bizarre fabrications.

Does McCain just not know what he’s talking about, or is he purposefully lying?

And again I say, there’s no difference between this McCain and old McCain. Being a maverick always meant he just did his own thing without regard to consistency, party or fair play. He is and always has been an “it’s all about me” ass.

The Crash

Though forever entwined, the stock market crash of 1929 and the Depression were distinct. Neither caused the other.

The stock market that crashed in the fall of 1929 was overheated by speculation. The bubble simply burst, as speculative bubbles always do. (What’s amazing is that this lesson of history never seems to keep the next bubble from forming.)

The market stood at 452 on September 3, 1929. On November 13 it bottomed at 224, the end of the Crash. That’s a loss of just about 50% in ten weeks. (I’m relying on the numbers in Galbraith’s The Great Crash and he relied upon The New York Times Industrial index.)

The market was steady after that, rising some in early 1930, then dropping notably in June. From June on the market just kept dropping until the index reached 58 in July 1932. These losses were related to the Depression, a symptom of it, not a cause.

World Serious

The 104th World Series began last night. The Phillies have the fewest world championships (1) of any of the 16 franchises that have been around since the first World Series in 1903. The Rays have none.

In all, 22 franchises have won at least one World Series (which means 8 teams have not won any):

  • Yankees 26 (in 39 appearances)
  • Cardinals 10
  • Athletics 9 (5 in Philadelphia, 4 in Oakland, none in Kansas City)
  • Red Sox 7
  • Dodgers 6 (1 in Brooklyn, 5 in Los Angeles)
  • Giants 5 (all in New York)
  • Pirates 5
  • Reds 5
  • Tigers 4
  • Braves 3 (one each in Boston, Milwaukee and Atlanta)
  • Orioles 3 (none as the St. Louis Browns)
  • Twins 3 (two in Minnesota, one as the Washington Senators)
  • White Sox 3
  • Blue Jays, Cubs, Indians, Marlins, Mets 2 each
  • Angels, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Royals 1 each

Appeared in a Series, but haven’t won:

  • Padres (twice)
  • Brewers (once, while in American League)
  • Astros
  • Rockies
  • Rays

Never been (and year began play):

  • Mariners (1977)
  • Expos/Nationals (1969)
  • Senators/Rangers (1961)

Which will move up the list this year, the Phillies (their second) or the Rays (their first)?

The World Series began in 1903, but there was no Series in 1904 or 1994.

October 23rd

The iPod is 7-years-old today. It was introduced by Steve Jobs on October 23, 2001.

The name iPod was proposed by Vinnie Chieco, a freelance copywriter, who (with others) was called by Apple to figure out how to introduce the new player to the public. After Chieco saw a prototype, he thought of the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey and the phrase “Open the pod bay door, Hal!”, which refers to the white EVA Pods of the Discovery One spaceship. Joseph N. Grasso of New Jersey had originally listed an “ipod” trademark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office in July 2000 for Internet kiosks. The first ipod kiosks had been demonstrated to the public in New Jersey in March 1998, and commercial use began in January 2000. The trademark was registered by the USPTO in November 2003, and Grasso assigned it to Apple Computer, Inc. in 2005.

Wikipedia

Pele is 68 today.

Michael Crichton is 66.

Oscar-winning director Ang Lee is 54.

Dwight Yoakam is 52. Yoakam has been in a number of films — he was the nasty boyfriend in Sling Blade — but it’s country music that earned his fame.

With his stripped-down approach to traditional honky tonk and Bakersfield country, Dwight Yoakam helped return country music to its roots in the late ’80s. Like his idols Buck Owens, Merle Haggard, and Hank Williams, Yoakam never played by Nashville’s rules; consequently, he never dominated the charts like his contemporary Randy Travis. Then again, Travis never played around with the sound and style of country music like Yoakam. On each of his records, he twists around the form enough to make it seem like he doesn’t respect all of country’s traditions. Appropriately, his core audience was composed mainly of roots rock and rock & roll fans, not the mainstream country audience. Nevertheless, he was frequently able to chart in the country Top Ten, and he remained one of the most respected and adventurous recording country artists well into the ’90s.

allmusic

Weird Al Yankovic is 49.

Johnny Carson was born 83 years ago today. A little luck and many fewer cigarettes and he might be alive today. While he was alive, Carson would have been NewMexiKen’s choice for the person I’d most like to have dinner with.

John William Heisman was born on this date in 1869. He’s the guy the trophy is named after. The following milestones in Heisman’s career are excerpted from his 1936 obituary in The New York Times and put here in chronological order.

In 1888 he was a member of the Brown football team, and in 1889 of the Pennsylvania varsity football eleven.

He began his coaching career in 1892 at Oberlin College. In 1893 he coached all sports at the University of Akron. From 1895 to 1900 he coached football and baseball at Alabama Polytechnic Institute, and from 1900 to 1904 was coach at Clemson College.

From 1904 to 1920 he coached football, baseball and basketball at the Georgia Institute of Technology, where he developed the famous “Golden Tornado” teams.

In 1908 he was director of athletics at the Atlanta Athletic Club. From 1910 to 1914 he was president of the Atlanta Baseball Association. In 1920 he coached football at the University of Pennsylvania and in 1923 filled the same position at Washington and Jefferson College. From 1924 to 1927 he was head football coach and director of athletics at Rice Institute, Houston, Texas.

In 1923 and 1924 he was president of the American Football Coaches Association.

For the last six years [before 1936] he had been physical director of the Downtown Athletic Club.

The Recession Is Not Caused by the Credit Crunch

The economy is not in a recession because of the credit crunch. The economy is going into a recession because of the crash of the housing bubble. Homeowners are losing on the order of $8 trillion in housing bubble wealth, $110,000 per homeowner. For most families, this is most of their wealth.

It was this housing bubble wealth that drive consumption and pushed the savings rate to near zero over the last four years. Now this wealth is disappearing and people are cutting back their consumption.

Dean Baker

The Great Crash

NewMexiKen is reading John Kenneth Galbraith’s classic The Great Crash, the story of the stock market crash of 1929, first published in 1954. (I have the 1961 edition.) It’s just 200 pages and worth your time.

History does not repeat itself, but the parallels between 1929 and 2008 are striking — financial speculation run rampant, naysayers shushed or ignored, reassurances abundant, new types of financial instruments, leverage maximized, regulation non-existent. And then the bubble burst, starting in September particularly and accelerating in October. Fascinating.

The ‘I have a dream’ vote

A story of early voting from a medical student in Evansville, Indiana, as told to Ben Smith – Politico.com:

For me the most moving moment came when the family in front of me, comprising probably 4 generations of voters (including an 18 year old girl voting for her first time and a 90-something hunched-over grandmother), got their turn to vote. When the old woman left the voting booth she made it about halfway to the door before collapsing in a nearby chair, where she began weeping uncontrollably. When we rushed over to help we realized that she wasn’t in trouble at all but she had not truly believed, until she left the booth, that she would ever live long enough to cast a vote for an African-American for president. Anyone who doesn’t think that African-American turnout will absolutely SHATTER every existing record is in for a very rude surprise.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Here are the 30 current components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the leading stock indicator for 80 years. Corporations have been removed and added over time, their stock values weighted to keep the Index consistent.

Blue chippers, every one. Even so, collectively their shares lost another 5.7% today (down 7.5% at one point). The Dow closed at 8519.21, down over 22% in 30 days.

(Or, as Atrios puts it, “Another exciting day at the dog track.”)

3M
Alcoa
American Express
AT&T
Bank of America
Boeing
Caterpillar
Chevron
Citigroup
Coca-Cola
E.I. du Pont de Nemours
Exxon Mobil
General Electric
General Motors
Hewlett-Packard
Home Depot
Intel
International Business Machines
Johnson & Johnson
JP Morgan & Chase
Kraft Foods
McDonald’s
Merck
Microsoft
Pfizer
Procter & Gamble
United Technologies
Verizon
Wal-Mart
Walt Disney

22 October

Three time best actress Oscar nominee Joan Fontaine is 91 today. Miss Fontaine won the Oscar in 1942 for Suspicion. Good genes in that family. Her sister Olivia de Havilland turned 92 in July.

Nobel Prize-winner Doris Lessing is 89 today.

“that epicist of the female experience, who with scepticism, fire and visionary power has subjected a divided civilisation to scrutiny”

Nobel Prize for Literature 2007

Christopher Lloyd is 70.

Annette Funicello is 66.

Catherine Deneuve is 65.

Jeff Goldblum is 56.

Ichiro Suzuki is 35.

It was on this date in 1962, that President Kennedy told the nation about the Soviet missiles in Cuba. From The New York Times report on the speech:

President Kennedy imposed a naval and air “quarantine” tonight on the shipment of offensive military equipment to Cuba.

In a speech of extraordinary gravity, he told the American people that the Soviet Union, contrary to promises, was building offensive missiles and bomber bases in Cuba. He said the bases could handle missiles carrying nuclear warheads up to 2,000 miles.

Thus a critical moment in the cold war was at hand tonight. The President had decided on a direct confrontation with–and challenge to–the power of the Soviet Union.

*****

All this the President recited in an 18-minute radio and television address of a grimness unparalleled in recent times. He read the words rapidly, with little emotion, until he came to the peroration–a warning to Americans of the dangers ahead.

“Let no one doubt that this is a difficult and dangerous effort on which we have set out,” the President said. “No one can foresee precisely what course it will take or what costs or casualties will be incurred.”

“The path we have chosen for the present is full of hazards, as all paths are–but it is the one most consistent with our character and courage as a nation and our commitments around the world,” he added.

It was as close as we’ve ever come to nuclear war.