Kevin Drum has a lengthy (for a blog) analysis of the CNN exit polls. He believes terrorism was the deciding issue.
Compared to 2000, three times as many people thought world affairs was the most important issue in the election, and among those people, Bush gained 5 points of support. Multiply those two things together, and that’s a lot of extra votes for Bush.
Drum believes the “moral issues” were no more decisive than in 2000.
Source: CNN exit polls
“The number of counties in the US in which more than 99% of voters voted Republican was five (out of 4533). The number of counties in which more than 99% of voters voted Democrat was 307.”
— From a web page devoted to maps and cartograms of the election.
NewMexiKen provides a link to the IQ and politics page everyone is looking for.
Q: How many American voters do you need to change a burnt out light bulb?
A: None, they’re perfectly happy being in the dark.
Via FarrFeed
The county election returns map has been altered to include population distribution — a cartogram. Read about it here. See it (large version) here. See also the strictly red and blue winner-take-all large version.
Kerry won big in northern New Mexico; more than 70% of the vote in San Miguel, Santa Fe and Taos counties; more than 60% in McKinley, Mora and Rio Arriba.
Bernalillo (Albuquerque) voted for Kerry 51-48.
The southeast and northwest corners (oil and gas lands) were decidedly for Bush.
The count is still not final, but Bush has a 7,425 vote lead (1%).
What’s intriguing to NewMexiKen is that Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron reported on Tuesday that 46 percent of the state’s registered voters had voted early or by absentee ballot. That would be 506,000 voters (out of 1.1 million).
As of tonight, the total vote count (for president) is 737,410.
That means that only 231,410 voted Tuesday (21%).
“If you want to have gay sex or visit a library, it’s probably your last night to do those things … Personally I’ll be killing two birds with one stone.”
– “Daily Show” correspondent Ed Helms, on the Bush mandate
“You have to feel bad for John Kerry because now he’ll have to go back to his life of being a senator, windsurfing and being a billionaire.”
– David Letterman
“President Bush was really sweating this, because he knew if Kerry won, he’s probably make Bush go to Iraq and finish his National Guard service.”
– Jay Leno
“In his concession speech, John Kerry said he is so grateful he wishes he could hug everyone of his supporters. After hearing this, Ralph Nader said, actually I was able to hug all of my supporters.”
– Conan O’Brien
“No word yet on what Daschle will do in private life, but insiders agree, whatever it is, it’s safe to assume he’ll be ineffective.”
– Jon Stewart
A graphic depiction of the election, county-by-county. We’re a lot more purple than red and blue. (You can click the map to enlarge it.)
Another purple map.
Both links via Kottke.
dangerousmeta! – a terrific site – sums up the election results in one photo.
“As Mo Udall once put it, the people have spoken, goddamn them.”
NewMexiKen has been optimistic about a Kerry victory since spring (admittedly with some periods of doubt). With large voter turnout seemingly everywhere today, I’m thinking it will be a good day for democracy and Democrats.
Kerry will poll more than 51% of the popular vote and win the electoral college by more than 100.
Pat Oliphant sums it up.
The Washington Redskins have played home games before 17 presidential elections (beginning with 1936). When the ‘Skins have won, the incumbent party has stayed in the White House. When the ‘Skins have lost, the incumbent party has been beaten by the challenger.
Today the Redskins lost 28-14 to the Green Bay Packers.
Kerry’s victory Tuesday will keep this strange little statistical anomaly alive for four more years.
(By the way, the Redskins scored to tie the game late in the fourth quarter and could have kicked an extra point to go ahead. The touchdown was called back on an illegal procedure play. How’s that for an omen?)
Functional Ambivalent has some fine thoughts about what should happen Wednesday.
I hope and pray that we can go back to work with the celebratory feeling we should all have after watching another democratic miracle. We have, in the most vociferous and occaisionally acrimonious way, held our political leadership accountable, tested their mettle, and made our statement. And now it’s time to feel pride and wave the flag and take a break from calling each other names. On Wednesday it’s time, once again, to become simply “Americans.”
That’s the measure of patriotism, to me: Can you lose the election and then go along with what your countrymen chose, even though you disagreed with it?
“They are going after me in the most personal and vindictive way. It’s gutter politics.”
— Tom DeLay
“That’s kinda like Attila the Hun complaining because somebody hunned him.”
— Juanita
Albloggerque posted this Wednesday (sorry I missed it before now):
DOWNTOWN–Chester Nez rests on a plaza bench after the Kerry rally. Many in Boston credit Mr. Nez for breaking the Curse of the Bambino with a Navajo blessing. The WWII Code Talker and Congressional Gold Medal winner blessed the Kerry campaign in Albuquerque Tuesday night.
Apparently the Boston Red Sox called on Chester Nez to come to Boston and give a Navajo blessing to the Red Sox last April. After the team lost its 3 games to the Yankees in the ALCS they called him again. The local story goes that he walked out of his Albuquerque home, faced Fenway Park, and gave a blessing.
Now the Kerry campaign has him on stage with JK. And last night in Albuquerque’s Civic Plaza there he was extracting corn pollen from a little leather bag and letting it sift into the air in all 4 directions. The thousands of people at the rally were hushed during the brief ceremony…
Albloggerque has a couple of photos.
NewMexiKen is away from home in a part of the country where they don’t have presidential campaign advertising because the states are not in contention like New Mexico.
How calm it all seems.
From CNN October 27, 2000:
Gallup: Bush 52% Gore 39%
CNN/Time: Bush 49% Gore 43%
ABC/Washington Post: Bush 48% Gore 45%
Zogby: Gore 45% Bush 43%
Actual vote: Gore 48.4% Bush 47.9%
As readers of this blog know, I’ve been somewhat undecided about the presidential race, but I went ahead and cast my vote this afternoon. It was the tenth time I’ve voted for President of the United States (well actually, for an elector to cast his or her vote for President of the United States).
It went well. The line was about 75 minutes long, punctuated as we stood along a major thoroughfare by a couple of drive-by campaignings. (Technically a felony, as those shouting from their vehicles were well within the 100 foot no electioneering limit.) It was a sunny day, and people seemed reasonably content with the wait given the seriousness of the responsibility.
I had no trouble with the electronic voting machine and it gave me a screen readout of all my selections at the end before I pushed the “I really mean it” button (the machine even warned me I had missed a couple choices).
One of the choices I missed (made no selection) was for Bernalillo County Clerk. As noted here Sunday, I did not think it was appropriate for the incumbent to imply people were having trouble voting because they were stupid. However true that might be, NewMexiKen found that a very unattractive response from a public servant. Furthermore, we’ve been voting in this country for well over 200 years. Isn’t it the job of county clerks to make it a simple, efficient, fool-proof process?
Senator Kerry is appearing in Albuquerque this afternoon, but not The Boss (Bruce Springsteen) and not The Big Dog (Bill Clinton).
One sunny day in 2005 an old man approached the White House from across Pennsylvania Ave, where he’d been sitting on a park bench. He spoke to the US Marine standing guard and said, “I would like to go in and meet with President Bush.”
The Marine looked at the man and said, “Sir, Mr. Bush is no longer president and no longer resides here.”
The old man said, “Okay” and walked away.
The following day, the same man approached the White House and said to the same Marine, “I would like to go in and meet with President Bush.”
The Marine again told the man, “Sir, as I said yesterday, Mr. Bush is no longer president and no longer resides here.”
The man thanked him and, again just walked away
The third day, the same man approached the White House and spoke to the very same US Marine, saying “I would like to go in and meet with President Bush.”
The Marine, understandably agitated at this point, looked at the man and said, “Sir, this is the third day in a row you have been here asking to speak to Mr. Bush. I’ve told you already that Mr. Bush is no longer the president and no longer resides here. Don’t you understand?”
The old man looked at the Marine and said, “Oh, I understand. I just love hearing it.”
The Marine snapped to attention, saluted, and said, “See you tomorrow, Sir.”
[From Julia, commenting at Making Light]
At The Gadflyer, Thomas Schaller believes in Bush. Some precepts of his faith:
I believe the president was right to oppose the formation of the 9/11 Commission, to change his mind but then oppose fully funding it, to change his mind but then oppose granting its request for an extension, to change his mind but refuse to testify for more than an hour, to change his mind but then testify alongside Vice President Dick Cheney so long as transcripts and note-taking were prohibited.
…Domestically, I believe income tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans are the solution to budget surpluses or deficits, high or low inflation, stable or unstable interest rates, expanding or shrinking trade deficits, widening or narrowing wealth gaps, increasing or decreasing poverty rates, rising or falling unemployment, prosperity or recession, wartime or peace. I believe record-setting budget deficits, record-setting trade deficits, and a burgeoning national debt are examples of the president’s fiscally-conservative economic leadership.
…Finally, I believe a white man of privilege who was accepted to Yale University despite a middling performance in prep school; was accepted to Harvard Business School despite a middling performance at Yale; was admitted to the Texas Air National Guard despite no flight background and an entrance exam score in the bottom quartile; was given funds by Osama bin Laden’s father to start a failed oil company; and was chosen to serve as Texas governor and 43rd President of the United States despite a lifelong record of mediocrity, is a man with the moral authority to criticize affirmative action as a policy that gives opportunities to the undeserving.
