Bulls, Bears, Donkeys and Elephants

“As of Friday, a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. stock market index* [in 1929] would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only, although that would be $51,211 if we exclude Herbert Hoover’s presidency during the Great Depression. Invested under Democratic presidents only, $10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of 8.9 percent over nearly 40 years.”

Several graphics comprise this article from The New York Times. Since the 1929 Crash, Republicans and Democrats have each been in the White House almost 40 years.

No wonder the economy is screwed. The Republicans can’t even do the math to figure out how much better off they are under Democrats.

  • 15% (the Bush capital gains tax) of $51,211 (the Republican return) is $7,682 for a net of $43,529
  • 20% (the pre-Bush capital gains tax) of $300,671 (the Democratic return) is $60,134 for a net of $240,537

Bet he’s fun at a party

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) — Nouriel Roubini, the professor who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, said the U.S. will suffer its worst recession in 40 years, causing the rally in the stock market to “sputter.”

“There are significant downside risks still to the market and the economy,” Roubini, 50, a New York University professor of economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We’re going to be surprised by the severity of the recession and the severity of the financial losses.”

The economist said the recession will last 18 to 24 months, driving unemployment to 9 percent, and already depressed home prices will fall another 15 percent.

. . .

“The stock market is going to stop rallying soon enough when they see the economy is really tanking,” Roubini added.

Bloomberg.com

McCain should have used The Google more

Oct. 14, 2008 — Googling is good for Grandpa and Grandma, says a new study by researchers at UCLA.

The study, which looked at brain activity during web searches, resulted in a fascinating finding: Middle-aged to older adults who know their way around the Internet had more stimulation of decision-making and complex reasoning areas of the brain than peers who were new to web surfing.

What’s more, reading didn’t stimulate the same number of brain areas as Internet searching.

WebMD

Bull Moose

While campaigning for the presidency as the Bull Moose Party candidate, former president Theodore Roosevelt was shot in the chest in Milwaukee on this date in 1912. He went ahead with his scheduled speech.

Milwaukee, Wis., October 14 — A desperate attempt to kill Col. Theodore Roosevelt tonight failed when a 32 caliber bullet aimed directly at the heart of the former president and fired at short range by the crazed assailant, spent part of its force in a bundle of manuscript containing the address which Co. Roosevelt was to deliver tonight, and wounded the Progressive candidate for President.

Col. Roosevelt delivered part of his scheduled address with the bullet in his body, his blood staining his white vest as he spoke to a huge throng at the auditorium. Later, he collapsed, weakened by the wound, and was rushed to Emergency hospital.

HistoryBuff.com had the above from a contemporary newspaper account. There’s more.

Roosevelt survived the wound. He died in January 1919, age 60. The Bull Moose Party was officially the Progressive Party.

Saguaro National Monument

… became Saguaro National Park on this date in 1994.

Saguaro National Park

This unique desert is home to the most recognizable cactus in the world, the majestic saguaro. Visitors of all ages are fascinated and enchanted by these desert giants, especially their many interesting and complex interrelationships with other desert life. Saguaro cacti provide their sweet fruits to hungry desert animals. They also provide homes to a variety of birds, such as the Harris’ hawk, Gila woodpecker and the tiny elf owl. Yet, the saguaro requires other desert plants for its very survival. During the first few years of a very long life, a young saguaro needs the shade and protection of a nurse plant such as the palo verde tree. With an average life span of 150 years, a mature saguaro may grow to a height of 50 feet and weigh over 10 tons.

National Park Service

Redux line of the day

“Now when I try to watch there is so much scrolling and popping up that I can’t see the play on my television. I don’t care that LaDainian Tomlinson has two receptions for 8 yards in the first quarter of another game that I am not even watching.

“There’s a reason why people watch TV — because they don’t want to read.”

Comedian Lewis Black on “Inside the NFL” on HBO quoted via Sideline Chatter.

First posted here three years ago today.

October 14th

Today is the birthday

… of John Wooden. The Wizard of Westwood is 98.

… of former surgeon general C. Everett Koop. Guess he knew what he was talking about because he’s 92 today.

… of Roger Moore. The oldest of the James Bonds in 81.

… of former Nixon White House Counsel and convicted multiple felon John Dean, 70 today.

… of Ralph Lauren. The founder of Polo is 69.

… of the judge of Night Court, Harry Anderson, who is 56 today.

… of Natalie Maines of the Dixie Chicks. She’s 34.

… of Usher. He’s 30.

Dwight D. Eisenhower, supreme commander of Allied forces in Europe during World War II and the 34th president of the United States, was born in Denison, Texas, on this date in 1890.

NewMexiKen is the third in a line of four Kenneths. The first Kenneth, my eponymous grandfather, was born on this date in 1899.

Bank shot

The Bank of Burque Babble (BBB) formally announces that it is foundering, and in need of significant government assistance. We’re not proud of it, but BBB has made a series of imprudent financial decisions in recent years that have left it in a precarious position. We are, of course, referring to our sizable investments in the purchase of foreign and U.S. microbrewery beer, not to mention our Netflix, XM Radio and Broadband cable entertainment holdings.

A Formal Request For Emergency Funds From the Bank of Burque Babble continues. Fun stuff.

If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It?

FiveThirtyEight.com takes a look at the Bradley Effect.1

With that said, the evidence is pretty strong that the Bradley Effect in fact used to exist in the 1980s and probably through some point in the 1990s. …

The evidence is perhaps equally strong, however, that the Bradley Effect does not exist any longer.

It’s a good, brief look at racism and polling.


1 The Bradley effect: Telling pollsters you voted for an African-American candidate when you did not in order to disguise racial bias. Named for Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who lost the California gubernatorial election in 1982 when some polls, including exit polls, showed him winning handily.

Best headline of the day, so far

“Fact-Checking the Ayers Allegations: So Wrong, It’s ‘Pants on Fire’ Wrong”

CQ Politics has the facts. Their summary:

In short, this was a mainstream foundation funded by a mainstream, Republican business leader and led by an overwhelmingly mainstream, civic-minded group of individuals. Ayers’ involvement in its inception and on an advisory committee do not make it radical – nor does the funding of programs involving the United Nations and African-American studies.

This attack is false, but it’s more than that – it’s malicious. It unfairly tars not just Obama, but all the other prominent, well-respected Chicagoans who also volunteered their time to the foundation. They came from all walks of life and all political backgrounds, and there’s ample evidence their mission was nothing more than improving ailing public schools in Chicago. Yet in the heat of a political campaign they have been accused of financing radicalism. That’s Pants on Fire wrong.

Congressional Quarterly (CQ) has been considered one of the best, most objective sources on Washington and politics for more than 60 years.

October 13

Today is the birthday

… of Margaret Thatcher, 83.

… of Melinda Dillon. That’s the mom in Close Encounters of the Third Kind. She’s 69. Dillon was nominated for the best supporting actress Oscar for that role and for her part in Absence of Malice.

… of Paul Simon. He’s “Still Crazy After All These Years” at 67.

Paul Simon is among the most erudite and daring songsmiths in popular music. After the breakup of Simon and Garfunkel in 1970, Simon embarked on a fruitful solo career that’s been notable for lyrical acuity, impeccable musicianship and stylistic daring. While Simon and Garfunkel worked largely (but not exclusively) in the folk idiom, Simon the solo artist has roamed wherever his muse has taken him – and that has literally meant around the world. His is not so much a conventional career in music as an odyssey of discovery using “intuitive flashes, synaptic leaps and shorthand logic” (in Simon’s own words) to help him on his way.

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

… of Demond Wilson. Sanford’s son is 62.

… of Sammy Hagar, 61.

However, Van Halen bounced back strong following Roth’s departure. The group recruited Sammy Hagar, who sang and played guitar. Hagar had started out with the hard-rock group Montrose and had a highly successful solo career. He fit well with Van Halen, with whom he was more personally compatible than his predecessor. In fact, the newly harmonious group scored its first Number One album with 5150, on which Hagar handles lead vocals.

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

… of Marie Osmond. She’s 49!

… of Jerry Rice. He’s 46.

… of Kate Walsh, 41. And yes, that’s her in the Cadillac ads. “The real question is, when you turn your car on, does it return the favor?”

… of skater Nancy Kerrigan. She’s 39.

… of Borat. Sacha Baron Cohen is 37.

The woman known as Molly Pitcher was born on October 13, 1754.

An Artillery wife, Mary Hays McCauly (better known as Molly Pitcher) shared the rigors of Valley Forge with her husband, William Hays. Her actions during the battle of Monmouth on June 28, 1778 became legendary. That day at Monmouth was as hot as Valley Forge was cold. Someone had to cool the hot guns and bathe parched throats with water.

Across that bullet-swept ground, a striped skirt fluttered. Mary Hays McCauly was earning her nickname “Molly Pitcher” by bringing pitcher after pitcher of cool spring water to the exhausted and thirsty men. She also tended to the wounded and once, heaving a crippled Continental soldier up on her strong young back, carried him out of reach of hard-charging Britishers. On her next trip with water, she found her artilleryman husband back with the guns again, replacing a casualty. While she watched, Hays fell wounded. The piece, its crew too depleted to serve it, was about to be withdrawn. Without hesitation, Molly stepped forward and took the rammer staff from her fallen husband’s hands. For the second time on an American battlefield, a woman manned a gun. (The first was Margaret Corbin during the defense of Fort Washington in 1776.) Resolutely, she stayed at her post in the face of heavy enemy fire, ably acting as a matross (gunner).

For her heroic role, General Washington himself issued her a warrant as a noncommissioned officer. Thereafter, she was widely hailed as “Sergeant Molly.” A flagstaff and cannon stand at her gravesite at Carlisle, Pennsylvania. A sculpture on the battle monument commemorates her courageous deed.

Fort Sill History

Art Tatum was born on October 13th in 1909.

It’s hard to summon enough superlatives for Tatum’s piano playing: his harmonic invention, his technical virtuosity, his rhythmic daring. The great stride pianist Fats Waller famously announced one night when Tatum walked into the club where Waller was playing, “I only play the piano, but tonight God is in the house.”

NPR : Art Tatum

Leonard Alfred Schneider was born on this date in 1925. We know him as Lenny Bruce.

On April 1, 1964, four New York City vice squad officers attended Bruce’s performance at the Cafe Au Go Go in Greenwich Village. The officers arrested Bruce and owner Howard Solomon following Bruce’s 10:00 P.M. show. Assistant District Attorney Richard Kuh presented a grand jury with a typed partial script of Bruce’s performance including references to Jackie Kennedy trying to “save her ass” after her husband’s assassination, Eleanor Roosevelt’s “nice tits,” sexual intimacy with a chicken, “pissing in the sink,” the Lone Ranger sodomizing Tonto, and St. Paul giving up “fucking” for Lent. The jury indicted Bruce on the obscenity charge. The trial before a three-judge court in New York City that followed stands as a remarkable moment in the history of free speech. Both the prosecution and defense presented parades of well-known witnesses to either denounce Bruce’s performance as the worst sort of gutter humor or celebrate it as a powerful and insightful social commentary. Among the witnesses testifying in support of Bruce were What’s My Line? panelist Dorothy Kilgallen, sociologist Herbert Gans, and cartoonist Jules Feiffer. In the end, the censors won. Voting 2 to 1, the court found Bruce guilty of violating New York’s obscenity laws and sentenced him to “four months in the workhouse.”

Famous Trials: The Lenny Bruce Trial

Bruce died of a drug overdose in 1966.

Stupidest, least self-aware, line of the day

“We had guys out of position. It has to do with our structure and getting our kids prepared. I think our coaches have to take some of the responsibility for that.”

Arizona football coach Mike Stoops.

Yes coach, structure and getting the kids prepared is pretty much up to the coaches. Are you just figuring that out after going 21-31 over 4-1/2 seasons?

The second least competent person in Tucson is Coach Stoops. The least competent person is Tucson is the guy that didn’t fire Coach Stoops last November.

It’s the birthday

… of the White House.

The cornerstone of the White House was laid on October 13, 1792. President John Adams and his wife Abigail moved into the unfinished structure on November 1, 1800, keeping to the scheduled relocation of the capital from Philadelphia. Congress declared the city of Washington in the District of Columbia the permanent capital of the United States on July 16, 1790. …

Constructed of white-grey sandstone that contrasted sharply with the red brick used in nearby buildings, the presidential mansion was called the White House as early as 1809. President Theodore Roosevelt officially adopted the term in 1902.

Source: Library of Congress

During the Truman Administration the White House was gutted except for the outside walls and rebuilt. This photo was taken in April 1950.

White House Construction

Gutted to the outside stone walls, deepened with a new two story basement, reinforced with concrete and 660 tons of steel, and fireproofed, the White House was stabilized. The protection of the historic stone walls was so important that workers dismantled a bulldozer and reassembled it inside to avoid cutting a larger doorway out of the walls. Shafts out of windows carried out debris from the inside of the house, and external stairs were built because the inside was completely empty during the renovation.

Source: The White House Historical Association

The Truman Presidential Museum and Library has a photo essay on the reconstruction — The White House Revealed — though the photos are too small to view much detail.

And this, Washington Didn’t Sleep Here: A White House FAQ

Sweetie Birthday

Sofie

The second of the October Sweeties birthdays is today. Lovely Sofia turns five.

Returned to her native Colorado, Sofie has her skis and boots and is ready to hit the slopes later this fall.

Happy Birthday Sofie!

Most descriptive line of the day, so far

“Even the most hardened cynics find themselves continually surprised by the ability of Rove and his minions to always hit that evasive new low, coming up with things that would shock a 60-year-old Greyhound-station hooker.”

Matt Taibbi

And the best analysis of the day, also from Taibbi:

Rove is not a genius, or even very clever: He’s totally and completely immoral. It doesn’t take genius to claim, as Rove ludicrously did last fall, that it was the Democrats in Congress and not George W. Bush who pushed the Iraq War resolution in 2002. It doesn’t take brains to compare a triple-amputee war veteran to Osama bin Laden; you just have to be a mean, rotten cocksucker.

The reason Rove continues to survive is the same reason that Johnnie Cochran was called a genius for keeping a double-murderer on the golf course — because this generation of Americans has become so steeped in greed and social Darwinism that it can no longer distinguish between cheating and achieving, between enterprise and crime, and can’t bring itself to criticize winners any more than it knows how to be nice to losers. He survives because an increasing number of Americans secretly agree with Rove’s vision of rules, laws and “the truth” as quaint, faintly embarrassing rituals that only a sucker would let hold him back.

Best line of the day

OK, NewMexiKen has decided to cut back on the political stuff somewhat, but I can’t pass on Gail Collins, from her terrific column today:

Remember how we used to joke about John McCain looking like an old guy yelling at kids to get off his lawn? It’s only in retrospect that we can see that the keep-off-the-grass period was the McCain campaign’s golden era. Now, he’s beginning to act like one of those movie characters who steals the wrong ring and turns into a troll.

During that last debate, while he was wandering around the stage, you almost expected to hear him start muttering: “We wants it. We needs it. Must have the precious.”

11 October

Today is the birthday

… of Elmore Leonard. He’s 83. Leonard on his Rules of Writing — “These rules I picked up along the way to help me remain invisible while I’m writing a book, to help me show rather than tell what’s taking place in the story.” (Quotation from If You Can’t Do It Well, Don’t Do It.)

Easy on the Adverbs, Exclamation Points and Especially Hooptedoodle (Leonard’s Rules of Writing).

Elmore Leonard’s western stories are as good if not better than his detective novels.

… of Joan Cusack. The actress is 46. She’s been nominated for the best actress in a supporting role Oscar twice, Working Girl and In & Out.

And, if they rated first ladies like they rate the presidents, the one who would surely be at the top, Eleanor Roosevelt, was born on this date in 1884. (She died in 1962.) The following is excerpted from the White House Biography of Eleanor Roosevelt:

Eleanor RooseveltA shy, awkward child, starved for recognition and love, Eleanor Roosevelt grew into a woman with great sensitivity to the underprivileged of all creeds, races, and nations. Her constant work to improve their lot made her one of the most loved–and for some years one of the most revered–women of her generation.

She was born in New York City on October 11, 1884, daughter of lovely Anna Hall and Elliott Roosevelt, younger brother of Theodore. …

In her circle of friends was a distant cousin, handsome young Franklin Delano Roosevelt. They became engaged in 1903 and were married in 1905, with her uncle the President giving the bride away. Within eleven years Eleanor bore six children; one son died in infancy. …

From [Franklin’s] successful campaign for governor in 1928 to the day of his death, she dedicated her life to his purposes. She became eyes and ears for him, a trusted and tireless reporter.

When Mrs. Roosevelt came to the White House in 1933, she understood social conditions better than any of her predecessors and she transformed the role of First Lady accordingly. She never shirked official entertaining; she greeted thousands with charming friendliness. She also broke precedent to hold press conferences, travel to all parts of the country, give lectures and radio broadcasts, and express her opinions candidly in a daily syndicated newspaper column, “My Day.”

So true

In the book that Pallop was reading by Kahneman and Tversky, for example, there is a description of a simple experiment, where a group of people were told to imagine that they had three hundred dollars. They were then given a choice between (a) receiving another hundred dollars or (b) tossing a coin, where if they won they got two hundred dollars and if they lost they got nothing. Most of us, it turns out, prefer (a) to (b). But then Kahneman and Tversky did a second experiment. They told people to imagine that they had five hundred dollars, and then asked them if they would rather (c) give up a hundred dollars or (d) toss a coin and pay two hundred dollars if they lost and nothing at all if they won. Most of us now prefer (d) to (c). What is interesting about those four choices is that, from a probabilistic standpoint, they are identical. They all yield an expected outcome of four hundred dollars. Nonetheless, we have strong preferences among them. Why? Because we’re more willing to gamble when it comes to losses, but are risk averse when it comes to our gains. That’s why we like small daily winnings in the stock market, even if that requires that we risk losing everything in a crash.

From a good 2002 article by Malcolm Gladwell profiling the investor Nassim Taleb.

Bad day for Balloon Fiesta

One person was killed and three injured today in three separate balloon accidents as the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta enters its closing days.

In the fatal accident, the balloon hit a power line (often a culprit in accidents), which cut a fuel line. The gondola and envelope caught fire and were separated. The two men on board fell 45 and 60 feet to the ground, killing one and critically injuring the other.

Here’s the story on the accident and a photo sequence of the doomed balloon.

Body of Lies

I’m thinking A.O. Scott isn’t crazy about the new Russell Crowe, Leanardo DiCaprio flick. His review begins:

Ridley Scott’s new movie, “Body of Lies,” raises a potentially disturbing question. If terrorism has become boring, does that mean the terrorists have won? Or, conversely, is the grinding tedium of this film good news for our side, evidence of the awesome might of Western popular culture, which can turn even the most intransigent and bloodthirsty real-world villains into fodder for busy, contrived and lifeless action thrillers?