Idle thought

Alas, I wasn’t watching the Colts’ great fourth quarter comeback last night (they won 35-34 after being down 31-14 with just 14 minutes to play). I think New England Coach Belichick made the right call going for it on fourth and two at the Patriots’ own 28 with two minutes left ahead 34-28. The Pats didn’t make the first down and the Colts took it in on four plays, but it was a gutsy call, statistically correct.

2 thoughts on “Idle thought”

  1. Mack and I both fell asleep right as the fourth quarter started – curses! But I have to say I think it was the right call, too.

    Indianapolis hasn’t lost a regular-season game in more than a year, and has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. You have to try to put them away, instead of giving them a chance to win it.

    As it turned out, it didn’t work…but I think it is a defensible decision.

  2. With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

    (0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

    A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

    Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it’s pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

    Advanced NFL Stats

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