I thought this about the best summary of why the H1N1 influenza is a big deal

What’s important about this virus is its genetic novelty. As far as we know, the human population doesn’t have any natural immunity to it. But what people perceive about the virus is its lack of novelty. Clinically it seems a lot like what they are used to with seasonal influenza. It’s not (so far) the monster of 1918 and doesn’t have the virulence of H5N1. What they are forgetting is what the genetic novelty might mean.

Because there is no natural immunity to this virus, even though clinically it appears to be like garden variety flu to the individual, with respect to the population it has the potential to spread faster and many more people sick than seasonal flu. And remember, seasonal flu is not a walk in the park. It kills an estimated 30,000 people a year.

A bad flu season can fill hospital emergency rooms and in patient beds to the bursting point. We currently have fewer staffed hospital beds per capita than we did in the last pandemic, 1968 (the “Hong Kong flu”). There is no reserve capacity. We can’t just add physical beds. Beds don’t take care of patients. Nurses and doctors do.

Now take a bad flu season and double it. To each individual it’s the same disease but now everybody is getting it at once, in every community and all over the world. In terms of virulence, it’s a mild pandemic. It’s not a lethal virus like 1918. But in terms of social disruption it could be very bad. If twice as many people get sick, the number of deaths could be 80,000 in the US instead of 40,000. Gurneys would line the hallways of hospitals and clinics. And absenteeism amongst health care workers would compound the problem. Infrastructure would probably survive intact. No need to have your own water supply or electricity generator. But it would be a very rough ride.

All of this could plausibly happen from this virus without it causing anything more than the usual case of influenza.

Effect Measure

One thought on “I thought this about the best summary of why the H1N1 influenza is a big deal”

  1. Interestingly phrased. “Natural immunity”. We all get viruses, our immune responses eventually kick in, and we get better. That’s the vector with H1N1 in America, so far. Same as for seasonal flus. Now, AIDS … there’s a virus we have no ‘natural immunity’ to. Different beast altogether, though this version of H1N1 is a curious combo of four different flu genetics. Good thing it didn’t start in Asia, adding their bird flu genetics to the mix. THEN I’d worry. Not right now, though.

    According to my reading, the seasonal flu shots since 1976 have had an H1N1 strain in them, which is theorized to confer partial immunity to those who get regular flu shots. We’re also seeing 50/60 + age individuals with immunity, which further implies the above benefit. But it’s certainly not a ‘natural’ immunity.

    I think the WHO is letting this play out, so the world takes pandemic seriously and starts spending money on preparations, for when SARS or other viruses really go … hog wild.

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