Best line of the day

OK, NewMexiKen has decided to cut back on the political stuff somewhat, but I can’t pass on Gail Collins, from her terrific column today:

Remember how we used to joke about John McCain looking like an old guy yelling at kids to get off his lawn? It’s only in retrospect that we can see that the keep-off-the-grass period was the McCain campaign’s golden era. Now, he’s beginning to act like one of those movie characters who steals the wrong ring and turns into a troll.

During that last debate, while he was wandering around the stage, you almost expected to hear him start muttering: “We wants it. We needs it. Must have the precious.”

11 October

Today is the birthday

… of Elmore Leonard. He’s 83. Leonard on his Rules of Writing — “These rules I picked up along the way to help me remain invisible while I’m writing a book, to help me show rather than tell what’s taking place in the story.” (Quotation from If You Can’t Do It Well, Don’t Do It.)

Easy on the Adverbs, Exclamation Points and Especially Hooptedoodle (Leonard’s Rules of Writing).

Elmore Leonard’s western stories are as good if not better than his detective novels.

… of Joan Cusack. The actress is 46. She’s been nominated for the best actress in a supporting role Oscar twice, Working Girl and In & Out.

And, if they rated first ladies like they rate the presidents, the one who would surely be at the top, Eleanor Roosevelt, was born on this date in 1884. (She died in 1962.) The following is excerpted from the White House Biography of Eleanor Roosevelt:

Eleanor RooseveltA shy, awkward child, starved for recognition and love, Eleanor Roosevelt grew into a woman with great sensitivity to the underprivileged of all creeds, races, and nations. Her constant work to improve their lot made her one of the most loved–and for some years one of the most revered–women of her generation.

She was born in New York City on October 11, 1884, daughter of lovely Anna Hall and Elliott Roosevelt, younger brother of Theodore. …

In her circle of friends was a distant cousin, handsome young Franklin Delano Roosevelt. They became engaged in 1903 and were married in 1905, with her uncle the President giving the bride away. Within eleven years Eleanor bore six children; one son died in infancy. …

From [Franklin’s] successful campaign for governor in 1928 to the day of his death, she dedicated her life to his purposes. She became eyes and ears for him, a trusted and tireless reporter.

When Mrs. Roosevelt came to the White House in 1933, she understood social conditions better than any of her predecessors and she transformed the role of First Lady accordingly. She never shirked official entertaining; she greeted thousands with charming friendliness. She also broke precedent to hold press conferences, travel to all parts of the country, give lectures and radio broadcasts, and express her opinions candidly in a daily syndicated newspaper column, “My Day.”

So true

In the book that Pallop was reading by Kahneman and Tversky, for example, there is a description of a simple experiment, where a group of people were told to imagine that they had three hundred dollars. They were then given a choice between (a) receiving another hundred dollars or (b) tossing a coin, where if they won they got two hundred dollars and if they lost they got nothing. Most of us, it turns out, prefer (a) to (b). But then Kahneman and Tversky did a second experiment. They told people to imagine that they had five hundred dollars, and then asked them if they would rather (c) give up a hundred dollars or (d) toss a coin and pay two hundred dollars if they lost and nothing at all if they won. Most of us now prefer (d) to (c). What is interesting about those four choices is that, from a probabilistic standpoint, they are identical. They all yield an expected outcome of four hundred dollars. Nonetheless, we have strong preferences among them. Why? Because we’re more willing to gamble when it comes to losses, but are risk averse when it comes to our gains. That’s why we like small daily winnings in the stock market, even if that requires that we risk losing everything in a crash.

From a good 2002 article by Malcolm Gladwell profiling the investor Nassim Taleb.

Bad day for Balloon Fiesta

One person was killed and three injured today in three separate balloon accidents as the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta enters its closing days.

In the fatal accident, the balloon hit a power line (often a culprit in accidents), which cut a fuel line. The gondola and envelope caught fire and were separated. The two men on board fell 45 and 60 feet to the ground, killing one and critically injuring the other.

Here’s the story on the accident and a photo sequence of the doomed balloon.

Body of Lies

I’m thinking A.O. Scott isn’t crazy about the new Russell Crowe, Leanardo DiCaprio flick. His review begins:

Ridley Scott’s new movie, “Body of Lies,” raises a potentially disturbing question. If terrorism has become boring, does that mean the terrorists have won? Or, conversely, is the grinding tedium of this film good news for our side, evidence of the awesome might of Western popular culture, which can turn even the most intransigent and bloodthirsty real-world villains into fodder for busy, contrived and lifeless action thrillers?

Ten Ten

Today is the birthday

… of Peter Coyote, the actor. He’s 67. Coyote does a lot of voice-over and narration. He’s the one that sounds a lot like Henry Fonda. He’s appeared in more than 100 films and television shows (including recently in “Commander in Chief”), though he began acting only at age 39. He tested for the part of Indiana Jones.

… of “Chicken George.” Actor Ben Vereen is 62. He played Alex Haley’s ancestor, “Chicken George,” in Roots.

… of singer John Prine, 62.

… of David Lee Roth, 54.

… of Tanya Tucker, 50.

… of Bradley Whitford. He’s 49.

… of Brett Favre. He’s 39.

… of Dale Earnhardt Jr. He’s 34.

Helen Hayes was born on October 10th in 1900. Hayes won two acting Oscars — leading in 1932 and supporting 39 years later in 1971.

Long regarded as “the First Lady of American Theater,” Helen Hayes earned international esteem and affection during a career that spanned more than eighty years on stage and in films, radio, and television. As a screen actor she won two Oscars, as a stage actor she won a prestigious Drama League of New York award, and in 1988 President Ronald Reagan presented her with the National Medal of Arts. Deeply in love with her profession, Hayes enjoyed playing a variety of roles, from Amanda Wingfield in Tennesse Williams’s “The Glass Menagerie” (1948) to a little old lady stowaway in AIRPORT (1970). Both the charm of her comic roles and the depth of her tragic ones made Hayes one of the most respected and beloved American actors.

American Masters

Thelonious Monk was born on this date in 1917.

Thelonious Monk, who was criticized by observers who failed to listen to his music on its own terms, suffered through a decade of neglect before he was suddenly acclaimed as a genius; his music had not changed one bit in the interim. In fact, one of the more remarkable aspects of Monk’s music was that it was fully formed by 1947 and he saw no need to alter his playing or compositional style in the slightest during the next 25 years. (All Music)

A must-have jazz album is Thelonious Monk Quartet with John Coltrane at Carnegie Hall. All Music has a review and the background — the tape had been lost for decades.

Monk died in 1982.

What a world

Even when the financial news is good, it speaks to the pending doom of the civilized world. Case in point:

Chief Financial Offer Keith Sherin told analysts on a conference call that he film segment saw its profit rise 40%, led by the performance of “Mamma Mia,” a movie adaptation of the hit Broadway musical, starring Meryl Streep and Pierce Brosnan. The film has grossed more than $500 million worldwide.

MarketWatch

Best line of the day, so far

The Republicans have alienated whole professions. Lawyers now donate to the Democratic Party over the Republican Party at 4-to-1 rates. With doctors, it’s 2-to-1. With tech executives, it’s 5-to-1. With investment bankers, it’s 2-to-1. It took talent for Republicans to lose the banking community.

David Brooks (of all people)

Don’t Watch the Dow

Generations of Americans have been trained to follow the Dow Jones Industrial Average for a quick snapshot of how the economy is performing or is expected to perform. There’s a lot that’s ill-advised about that habit, but, most importantly, attending to the ups and downs in the Dow won’t tell you much about the current financial crisis. Ours is a crisis of credit: Financial firms are unwilling to lend to each other (at all-but-exorbitant rates) for fear that borrowing firms may fail or that they themselves may need the cash to fend off their own crisis.

Whereas the hourly fortunes of the Dow or any stock index are, at best, indirect reflections of this reluctance to lend, the TED Spread measures credit conditions directly. Bloomberg tracks the TED Spread here. What sounds like second-rate Nutella is actually the difference between the interest rate banks charge each other on three-month loans and the interest rate on three-month U.S. Treasury bills.

Why TED? The T comes from “T-bill,” shorthand for short-term Treasury bills, and the ED comes from “eurodollar contracts.” . . .

The Big Money

T-bills are the safest investment. Loaning between banks is riskier. The difference between the interest rates (the TED Spread) shows the perception of the risk. Historically the TED is around 0.5. Right now it’s at 4.23.

Unfortunately true best line of the day

“We are near total financial and corporate meltdown dude.”

New York University economist Nouriel Roubini to Felix Salmon, October 7th

Roubini has been one of the primary doomsayers leading into the current crisis. Alas, he’s been an accurate sayer too as it turns out.

Here’s what Roubini wrote today. Not for the faint of heart. The lead sentence:

“The US and advanced economies’ financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof.”

5,000

Do you like round numbers? Nice round numbers? Then you can impress yourself and your friends by noting that since October 9, 2007, one year ago today, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its all time high close, the index has lost 5,000 points.

Give or take a few depending on where it ends up in two hours.

The high close was 14,164.53 on October 9, 2007. (The highest ever was 14,279.96 two days later.)

At Noon MDT today it’s at 9168.50.

Update at Close: So much for 5,000. The Dow closed today at 8,579.19.

So, down 5585 in one year.

And the question becomes, how low can it go?

October 9th

John Lennon should have been 68 today.

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductee Jackson Browne is 60.

Jackson Browne has been both an introspective, cerebral songwriter and a politically attuned voice of conscience. He emerged in the early Seventies as a soul-baring young folksinger whose songs dealt with riddles of romance and existence. In his middle period he became a more extroverted rock and roller. Later work grew more topical in nature as Browne sang of political and social realities within and beyond our borders.

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

Robert Wuhl is 57. Wuhl, known most recently for Arli$$, shared in two Emmys for writing for the Academy Awards show (1991, 1992). NewMexiKen liked him best as the coach in Bull Durham.

“Okay, well, uh… candlesticks always make a nice gift, and uh, maybe you could find out where she’s registered and maybe a place-setting or maybe a silverware pattern. Okay, let’s get two! Go get ’em.”

Tony Shalhoub, Monk, is 55.

Guillermo del Toro, writer-director-producer of El Laberinto del fauno, is 44.

Annika Sorenstam is 38.

Sean Lennon is 33.

Charles Walgreen was born on this date in 1873. Yes, he’s the man who began the Walgreen’s drug store chain, starting in Chicago. It was a Walgreen’s soda fountain employee who invented the malted milkshake in 1922, which puts him right up there with Edison as far as NewMexiKen is concerned.

And Bruce Catton was born on this date in 1899.

Bruce Catton was fifty when he began work on the first two of what would become thirteen books on the Civil War – Mr. Lincoln’s Army, (1951) followed one year later by Glory Road. His debut was hailed by the Chicago Tribune as “military history at its best.” He “combines the scholar’s appreciation of the Grand Design with a newsman’s keenness for meaningful vignette,” said Newsweek. Catton immersed himself in a vast range of primary materials, especially the diaries, letters and anecdotal reports of soldiers on the ground, which gave his books from the outset their unique, “you are there” ambience.

In 1954, Catton became the first editor of American Heritage Magazine in Washington, where he remained as Senior Editor until his death in 1978.

“There is a near-magic power of imagination in Catton’s work,” wrote Oliver Jensen, who succeeded him as editor of the magazine, “that seemed to project him physically into the battlefields, along the dusty roads and to the campfires of another age.”

Neil Baldwin

Now is probably not the time to sell your stocks

Amazing fact: Less than one percent of stock exchange trading days accounted for 96% of the gains over 40 years, 1963-2004.

By fleeing for the comfort of safe and insured, however, investors with a time horizon beyond a few years may be doing real damage to their long-term finances. If you’re tempted to make a big move to cash right now, you’re doing something called market timing. It’s an implied statement that you’ve figured out the right moment to get out of stocks — and will also know the right time to get back in.

So let’s dispense with the first part straightaway. The right time to move out of stocks was a year or so ago, before various stock indexes the world over fell by one-third or more.

If you missed that opportunity, you’re hardly alone.

But if you sell now, you’ll be locking in your losses. And once you’re in cash, there isn’t much upside. In fact, with interest rates low, you’re likely to lose money in cash, because inflation will probably eat up the after-tax returns you earn from a savings or money-market account.

From Switching to Cash May Feel Safe, but Risks Remain, an article in today’s New York Times.

If you sell now, when will you get back in? You may miss the memo.

A good article.