“Today, Barack Obama has 269 electoral votes outside the battleground zone. That is, if you only give Obama the states he is projected to win by more than five points, that is enough to get him an Electoral College tie, which is essentially the same as a win.”
FiveThirtyEight.com (the best source for polling information and forecasts).
Obama gets 269 even if the margin is upped to six points. New Mexico (+9.3%) and Colorado (+6.1%) are included in the 269.
In addition, FiveThirtyEight.com says “[W]e project Obama victories in Virginia (4.4%), New Hampshire (3.4%), Ohio (2.4%), Florida (2.4%), and Nevada (2.1%), with Indiana a tie.”
That’s 338.
But anything can happen.