FiveThirtyEight.com takes a look at the Bradley Effect today. It includes this:
It may be that in the Northeast, which is arguably the most “politically correct” region of the country, expressions of racism are the least socially acceptable, and that therefore some people may misstate their intentions to pollsters. By contrast, in the South and the Midwest, if people are racist they will usually be pretty open about it, and in the West, which is nation’s most multicultural region, there is relatively little racism, either expressed or implicit.
Allowing for generalization, do you think he’s correct?
The Bradley Effect is named for Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley. When African-American Bradley ran for governor of California in 1982, exit polls showed him a clear winner. When he lost, subsequent analysis showed that some voters had lied about whom they voted for rather than appear racist to pollsters. The Bradley effect is about lying to pollsters, not about voting on the basis of race.