Bill Simmons at ESPN’s Page 2 on the finals:
The team with the best player ALWAYS wins the Finals.
This isn’t even a theory; it’s like saying, “Every summer, it will become hot.” Just look at the last 25 years — only the ’81 Celtics and the ’89-’90 Pistons teams fail the Best Player Test, but those teams were absolutely stacked (and I still think the ’89 Pistons were one of the best five teams ever, but that’s a story for another time). Can you imagine a team winning the Finals when they didn’t even have one of the top two players in the series? It would be unprecedented. And seeing Detroit win the title while getting no contribution at all from the No. 2 pick last summer … I can’t even imagine how weird that would be.
But it could happen. If the Lakers blow the title, it would have to rank among the most curious collapses in recent sports history: An obviously superior team that fell short because they didn’t want it enough. Contrast that to the emotional scene in Tampa Bay last night, as the Lightning held off the underdog Flames in seven, both teams leaving everything they had on the ice. After the game, an exhausted Martin St. Louis was interviewed by one of the sideline reporters, two fresh gashes covering his face, looking like he had just been run over by Billy Joel. It was a stark contrast from Game 1 of the NBA Finals the night before, the Lakers trying to win a title without breaking a sweat.
And as Dave Andreychuk carried the cup around, screaming with delight at the end of a 22-year odyssey, I couldn’t help thinking about the difference between him and Malone and Payton — three guys at the same point of their careers, one of them reaching the promised land on his own terms, the other two guys looking like they just want the season to end.
I still think the Lakers win in six … but for the first time in years, I already find myself missing the NHL playoffs. At least those guys cared.