Outliers

“It struck me that our understanding of success was really crude ….”

Gladwell discusses Outliers, his latest best-seller. Two excerpts:

3. In what way are our explanations of success “crude?”

That’s a bit of a puzzle because we certainly don’t lack for interest in the subject. If you go to the bookstore, you can find a hundred success manuals, or biographies of famous people, or self-help books that promise to outline the six keys to great achievement. (Or is it seven?) So we should be pretty sophisticated on the topic. What I came to realize in writing Outliers, though, is that we’ve been far too focused on the individual—on describing the characteristics and habits and personality traits of those who get furthest ahead in the world. And that’s the problem, because in order to understand the outlier I think you have to look around them—at their culture and community and family and generation. We’ve been looking at tall trees, and I think we should have been looked at the forest.

5. Doesn’t that make it sound like success is something outside of an individual’s control?

I don’t mean to go that far. But I do think that we vastly underestimate the extent to which success happens because of things the individual has nothing to do with. Outliers opens, for example, by examining why a hugely disproportionate number of professional hockey and soccer players are born in January, February and March. I’m not going to spoil things for you by giving you the answer. But the point is that very best hockey players are people who are talented and work hard but who also benefit from the weird and largely unexamined and peculiar ways in which their world is organized. I actually have a lot of fun with birthdates in Outliers. Did you know that there’s a magic year to be born if you want to be a software entrepreneur? And another magic year to be born if you want to be really rich? In fact, one nine year stretch turns out to have produced more Outliers than any other period in history. It’s remarkable how many patterns you can find in the lives of successful people, when you look closely.

How low will it go?

Oil is under $40 a barrel at the moment. There’s no reason to think gasoline won’t soon be under a buck a gallon, in some places at least. You can get regular for $1.27 a gallon in Cheyenne, Wyoming.

Is this good news or bad news?

[Update: I don't recommend driving to Cheyenne to buy gas. It just seems to have the lowest price in the country at the moment.]

Film Addict

Are you a bigger film addict than your friends? Find out! Check off the movies you’ve seen below and then compare!

Film Addict

NewMexiKen registered a paltry 51.6%. Ken, who sent me the link, had 81.6.

Favorite Mommy (and Daddy) Blogs

Motherlode discusses My Favorite Mommy (and Daddy) Blogs.

Well, wud ya’ look at that

Richard Wetherill and his brother-in-law Charles Mason rode out on what is now Sun Point in search of lost cattle 120 years ago today and found Cliff Palace at Mesa Verde. That afternoon, Richard found Spruce Tree House, and the next day, the two men discovered Square Tower House. Al Wetherill, Richard’s brother, saw Cliff Palace sometime the year before, but he did not enter the dwelling, so the credit for “discovering” the dwelling has been given to Richard Wetherill and Charles Mason.

In 1901, Richard Wetherill homesteaded land that included Pueblo Bonito, Pueblo Del Arroyo, and Chetro Ketl in what is now Chaco Culture National Historical Park. Wetherill remained in Chaco Canyon, homesteading and operating a trading post at Pueblo Bonito until his murder in 1910. Chiishch’ilin Biy, charged with the murder, served several years in prison, but was released in 1914 due to poor health. Wetherill is buried in the small cemetery west of Pueblo Bonito.

NewMexiKen took this photo of Cliff Palace in 2006. Click image for a larger version.

Glad? Well, Yes

An appreciation of Malcolm Gladwell from a colleague, Hendrik Hertzberg.

December 18th is the birthday

… of Keith Richards. The Rolling Stone is 65.

… of Steven Spielberg. The director is 62. The Writer’s Almanac has an interesting little biographical essay about Spielberg.

… of Ray Liotta. The actor, a good fella, is 53.

… of Brad Pitt. Still pretty at 45.

… of Rachel Griffiths, 40.

… of Katie Holmes, 30. (Tom is 46.)

… of Christina Aguilera. She’s 28.

Ty Cobb was born on this date in 1886.

Ty Cobb may have been baseball’s greatest player, if not the game’s fiercest competitor. His batting accomplishments are legendary – a lifetime average of .367, 297 triples, 4,191 hits, 12 batting titles (including nine in a row), 23 straight seasons in which he hit over .300, three .400 seasons (topped by a .420 mark in 1911), and 2,245 runs. Intimidating the opposition, “The Georgia Peach” stole 892 bases during a 24-year career, primarily with the Detroit Tigers. (National Baseball Hall of Fame)

It was on December 18th

… just 143 years ago that the 13th amendment to the U.S. Constitution was officially adopted.

Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.

Twenty-seven of the 36 states ratified the amendment between February 1st and December 6, 1865. Five more of the 36 ratified it by early 1866. Texas ratified the amendment in 1870, Delaware in 1901, Kentucky in 1976, and Mississippi in 1995.

Best Christmas line of the day, so far

When I was a child, I tell my offspring, my brother and I often would receive just one present at Christmastime, typically an individual crayon. It wouldn’t even be a full crayon, but merely a stub. Still, we’d be grateful and would pretend that “brown” was our favorite of the 64 Crayola colors. We would talk about how great this crayon would be if only we could afford paper.

Joel Achenbach

[First posted here three years ago.]

Ramblings

FedEx is reducing the pay of its salaried employees 5% effective January 1. Do I hear the D-word (deflation)?

Dean Baker wonders why news articles about the auto industry mention employee pay, but similar articles about the newspaper industry don’t.

Calculated Risk has an update graph of the Four Bad Bears. (Be sure to click on the chart to get the readable version.) Doesn’t look to me like the game is over yet. Am I waiting too long to get back in equities?

iPhone thief thwarted

While at the dry cleaner one day, Rob’s iPhone was stolen. He immediately chalked it up as gone forever, and proceeded to purchase a brand new one that same evening. It was the next day when unfamiliar contacts began to appear on the new phone. The (not-too-bright) thief was unwittingly supplying him with names and phone numbers of his or her closest friends, via the magic of MobileMe synchronization from the stolen phone to the cloud and eventually to his new phone. “It didn’t take long for me to realize that MobileMe was leading me right to the thief!” wrote Rob.

Thanks to the fact that he caught on to it before he’d had time to remotely disconnect his account, MobileMe provided the groundwork for a little social engineering. Rob made quick work of wrangling a name and phone number from the provided contacts, supplying the police with everything they needed to get Rob his phone back. By the end of the night, he had his original iPhone in his possession.

The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW)

National Park System Quiz

National Parks Traveler has a very difficult quiz this week about the national parks.

This week’s quiz explores many colorful aspects of our national parks. We’re going to depart from custom here and mix in some true-false and short-answer items. Answers are at the end. If we catch you peeking we’ll confiscate your crayons.

Taxes of the Rich and Famous

Kevin Drum reports on our not so progressive federal tax structure.

December 17th

William Safire is 79 today.

He once wrote a list called “William Safire’s Rules for Writers.” The rules included: “Remember to never split an infinitive,” “The passive voice should never be used,” and, “Last, but not least, avoid clichés like the plague.”

The Writer’s Almanac with Garrison Keillor

Barry Livingston of My Three Sons is 55. Barry was the fourth son, Ernie.

The great conductor of the Boston Pops Orchestra, Arthur Fiedler, was born on this date in 1894.

The poet John Greenleaf Whittier was born on this date in 1807.

The sun that brief December day
Rose cheerless over hills of gray,
And, darkly circled, gave at noon
A sadder light than waning moon.
Slow tracing down the thickening sky
Its mute and ominous prophecy,
A portent seeming less than threat,
It sank from sight before it set.
A chill no coat, however stout,
Of homespun stuff could quite shut out,
A hard, dull bitterness of cold,
That checked, mid-vein, the circling race
Of life-blood in the sharpened face,
The coming of the snow-storm told.

Above, the opening to Snow-Bound, published in 1866.

Bicycle mechanics

Orville and Wilbur Wright successfully made the first four sustained flights of a heavier-than-air machine under the complete control of the pilot at Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina, 105 years ago today. Their fourth attempt, at 10:35 am, lasted 12 seconds and covered 120 feet.

The photograph (click to enlarge) “shows Orville Wright at the controls of the machine, lying prone on the lower wing with hips in the cradle which operated the wing-warping mechanism. Wilbur Wright running alongside to balance the machine, has just released his hold on the forward upright of the right wing.” (Source: Library of Congress)

The most prominent man attempting to build an airplane at the time was the third Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, Samuel Langley. He had been studying aeronautics since 1886, and by 1899 he had a large endowment from the U.S. War Department and an entire staff of workers building his design.

One of the problems with Langley’s design, however, was that his plane lacked an ability to steer. He made two test flights in the fall of 1903, and in both cases his plane went straight up and then crashed straight back down. His test flights were covered by all the major newspapers of the day, and such disastrous failure made it seem that motor-powered flight might never be achieved.

The Wright Brothers, by contrast, had believed from the start that steering and balance were the most important aspects of flight. They ran a bicycle shop, so they understood the importance of balance, and they designed their plane to be steered by the pilot shifting his own weight. They began testing gliders with their steering system in 1900, and it was almost as an afterthought that they decided to add an engine.

The Writer’s Almanac (2005), which has more.

Person of the Year

Why History Can’t Wait – Person of the Year 2008 – TIME

Fascinating

Anyone interested in politics, education and Washington ways will find The Obama Girls and Blacks at Sidwell – An Inside Perspective, Part II, fascinating reading by Jill of Jack and Jill Politics.

The Jack of Jack and Jill Politics also attended Sidwell Friends. Here’s a video of his stand-up routine at a fundraiser early this year. Some funny stuff.

Tea Time

It was on this date in 1773 that the Boston Tea Party took place. Fortunately for the future of America, the populace at that time was not encumbered with Christmas shopping or sports on TV and could pay attention to public affairs.

In 1770, the British Parliament ended the Townshend Duties — taxes on the sale of lead, glass, paper, paints and tea — ended them for all but tea. The tax on British tea and a boycott of it in many of the colonies continued.

Tea was a hot commodity in the colonies, however, and considerable foreign tea was smuggled into America to avoid the tax. Some four-fifths of the tea consumed in America was brought in by smugglers.

In 1773 Parliament, in an effort to both prevent the bankruptcy of the East India Company and raise tax revenue, reduced the tea tax and gave the company a monopoly in the American tea business. The price of tea would be lower than smugglers could match, Americans would buy East India tea, the company would revive, and the tax, though lower, would be paid on vastly more tea. Win-win.

Read the rest of this entry.

December 16th

Born on this date were:

… Jane Austen (1775-1817). Best known for her novels about young women yearning to get married, she was never married.

… George Santayana (1863-1952). “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

… Margaret Mead (1901-1978). “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.”

Arthur C. Clarke (1917-2008). Clarke’s laws:

1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Broadcast journalist Lesley Stahl is 67.

TV producer Steven Bocho is 65.

Billy Gibbons of ZZ Top is 59.

Benjamin Bratt is 45.

Line of the day

“Seriously, we are in very deep trouble.”

Paul Krugman

ZIRP

That’s our acronym of the day: ZIRP.

It stands for Zero Interest Rate Policy.

That’s what the Fed did today when it announced a target range of 0 to .25 percent.

Since the Committee’s last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.

In other words, “the Fed is scared right now. I mean really scared. And they will do anything even remotely possible right now,” says Hale “Bonddad” Stewart.

Put another way, “that’s the equivalent of ‘Abandon Ship! Every man, woman, and child for themselves!’” says Andrew Leonard.

Yank

So, in a comment, Avelino says: “So, no posts today thus far. Is this the appropriate time to start noting the lack of activity?”

Short answer: Yes.

Longer answer: I had a wisdom tooth pulled this morning and the tooth won.

Between pain and drugs this afternoon I am choosing drugs.

Secretary of What, Part Two

“No Senator or Representative shall, during the time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil office under the authority of the United States, which shall have been created, or the emoluments whereof shall have been increased during such time . . .” (Article I, Section 6, U.S. Constitution)

That pretty much precludes Senator Ken Salazar from serving in a cabinet post, doesn’t it? (Reports tonight say he will be Obama’s nominee for Interior.)

The time for which he was elected is from Noon, January 3, 2005 until Noon January 3, 2011.

The emoluments for cabinet positions were increased from $180,100 in 2005 to $191,300 in 2008.

I know. I know. This happened with a few nominees in the past and Congress cut the pay for the position and everybody looked the other way. BUT THAT IS NOT WHAT THE CONSTITUTION PLAINLY STATES. The emoluments have been increased!

I predict that as soon as an individual is harmed by a decision of the Salazar Interior Department they will have standing to challenge the result of the action based on his constitutional incapacity to serve. And someone will make that challenge.

(It precludes not only Senator Salazar but also Senator Clinton and any other senator elected in 2004 or 2006. It does not apply to any representatives because they’ve just been re-elected.)

Best snow-related line of the evening, so far

“The snows are not predicted to let up until Thursday, three days from now. At this rate we are all surely in for great hardships. If I were you I would start rationing meats, lamp oil and marshmallows.”

Alibi Blog

Especially marshmallows.

By Appointment Only

Hendrik Hertzberg gives some interesting historical background on appointments to the U.S. Senate.

News You Can Lose

Who among NewMexiKen’s readers subscribes (or otherwise gets) the daily local newspaper? Why? Why not?

Some background:

James Surowiecki sums up the sad state of the newspaper industry in this week’s New Yorker.

Felix Salmon responds to one part of Surowiecki’s report.

In a comment, Becci suggests The Old Media by Susan Estrich.

The science reporter for The Albuquerque Journal, John Fleck, has been blogging some of late on this topic. Elephant Diaries: The Economics of Local News and The Elephant in the Room are particularly useful.

[This post restructured and updated from original versions.]

Beware of the Santa Fe Snow Drivers

Subaru and Dodge Ram Hemi may be truer to form in New Mexico than say Arlington, Virginia, but the characterizations apply everwhere. Kahunaburger tells us to Beware of the Santa Fe Snow Drivers — “First, let’s meet Carla Cautious. She drives an old Subaru. Green. … Second, there’s Rick Rambo. He drives one of those 7.1L Hemi Dodge Ram Heavy Duty trucks.”

Go read and enjoy.

Light snow this morning at Casa NewMexiKen, no accumulation yet.

Is it really 10 below in Denver?

The best piece on the Heisman

“The lunacy of the Heisman Trophy” by Allen Barra, first published in 2003 and still right on. Key excerpt:

The Mackey, the Lombardi, the Outland, the Biletnikoff—there are more than a dozen college football awards, and all of them taken together don’t generate one-tenth of the ink given to the Heisman Trophy. Why, exactly? What is particularly puzzling is that the Walter Camp Award, presented to the “nation’s top player” by the Walter Camp Foundation, has never caught on, considering that it is named for the father of football, the man without whom none of the other awards would exist. But then, the Walter Camp Foundation is in New Haven, Conn., and the Heisman Trophy is presented by the Downtown Athletic Club in New York. Which, come to think of it, probably answers the question right there….

And, by the way, why not present the Heisman sometime in mid-January, after the bowl games have been played? Why continue the pretense that the bowls aren’t part of the “season”? Since the bowl games determine the national championship and final rankings, why do the various groups and foundations that give out trophies pretend that the biggest games these kids will play don’t matter?

Every year, sportswriters wail and wail for a Heisman overhaul, and still nothing changes. So here’s a more feasible remedy. College football would gain some credibility by simply acknowledging that modern football is a division of labor among specialists. Gather up all the various year-end awards, including the Heisman, rent a ballroom, and present them all on the same night. If we can’t get the best players checked off on the Heisman ballot, maybe we can at least get them all in the same room.

Flight of the Season

How many toys can you deliver?

Walt Disney

… died of lung cancer on this date in 1966. He was 65.

The Walt Disney Family Museum provides in-depth background.

Was Walt frozen?

No researcher has discovered where this myth began, but it certainly is widespread. Quite the opposite, Walt’s daughter Diane recalls that her father spoke frequently about his desire to be cremated — and in fact he was. When Disney archivist Robert Tieman researched the issue, he discovered that the first attempts at freezing a person weren’t even discussed until after Walt’s death. In any case, the people who knew Walt and loved him never heard him utter a word about trying it out himself. What’s more, his family lingered around him for some time after his death. No white-smocked physicians rushed his body off to some kind of freezing chamber as would undoubtedly have been the case if he was being preserved.