Comments on: Idle thought http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/ Half Wisdom • Half Whimsy • Half Wit Thu, 18 Mar 2010 15:21:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: NewMexiKen http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17288 NewMexiKen Sun, 12 Jul 2009 12:56:55 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17288 Man: Oh look, this isn't an argument! Other Man: Yes it is! Man: No it isn't! Man: It's just contradiction! Other Man: No it isn't! Man: It IS! Other Man: It is NOT! Man: You just contradicted me! Man: Oh look, this isn’t an argument!

Other Man: Yes it is!

Man: No it isn’t!

Man: It’s just contradiction!

Other Man: No it isn’t!

Man: It IS!

Other Man: It is NOT!

Man: You just contradicted me!

]]> By: Mrs. A http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17286 Mrs. A Sun, 12 Jul 2009 07:21:11 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17286 Yeah... quit pickin' on him. Yeah… quit pickin’ on him.

]]> By: Not Tom http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17281 Not Tom Sat, 11 Jul 2009 20:17:45 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17281 This isn't Tom or anyone who has ever met Tom, but I think it's unfair that you say Tom always has to have the last word. That doesn't sound like the Tom I know. I mean, that I <em>don't</em> know. I think you should be nicer to him. This isn’t Tom or anyone who has ever met Tom, but I think it’s unfair that you say Tom always has to have the last word. That doesn’t sound like the Tom I know. I mean, that I don’t know. I think you should be nicer to him.

]]> By: SnoLepard http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17265 SnoLepard Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:22:47 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17265 Debby, I was thinking it might be interesting to see how long we could keep this thread going before Tom would give up on having the last comment, but I can see that ain't gonna happen. Debby, I was thinking it might be interesting to see how long we could keep this thread going before Tom would give up on having the last comment, but I can see that ain’t gonna happen.

]]> By: Tom http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17264 Tom Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:00:43 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17264 "As a blog comment thread grows longer, the probability that I will be the only person participating approaches 1." “As a blog comment thread grows longer, the probability that I will be the only person participating approaches 1.”

]]> By: Debby http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17256 Debby Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:32:48 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17256 We could get a whole conversation going just about such corollaries. It would be fun. There are so many.... We could get a whole conversation going just about such corollaries. It would be fun. There are so many….

]]> By: Tom http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17253 Tom Fri, 10 Jul 2009 10:35:25 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17253 Yeah, it's kind of like Godwin's Law. (As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.) Call it Tom's Corollary. "As a discussion about Kentucky grows longer, the probability of someone making a trailer joke approaches 1." Yeah, it’s kind of like Godwin’s Law. (As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.) Call it Tom’s Corollary. “As a discussion about Kentucky grows longer, the probability of someone making a trailer joke approaches 1.”

]]> By: NewMexiKen http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17248 NewMexiKen Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:45:58 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17248 Uncle. Uncle.

]]> By: Tom http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17247 Tom Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:43:40 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17247 That's easy to understand. Unlike conventional homes, trailers are a depreciating asset. That’s easy to understand. Unlike conventional homes, trailers are a depreciating asset.

]]> By: NewMexiKen http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17237 NewMexiKen Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:30:43 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17237 True, he does — and often succeeds. Not that pissing me off is all that difficult. But from now on when I make any generalities I'll exclude Kentucky and other localities that Tom seems to think are not part of the U.S. economy. Oh, BTW, at the end of 2008, 15.3% of the 200,000-plus mortgages in Kentucky had negative equity. True, he does — and often succeeds. Not that pissing me off is all that difficult.

But from now on when I make any generalities I’ll exclude Kentucky and other localities that Tom seems to think are not part of the U.S. economy.

Oh, BTW, at the end of 2008, 15.3% of the 200,000-plus mortgages in Kentucky had negative equity.

]]> By: Tom http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17236 Tom Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:11:28 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17236 My point -- and it's really too small a point to justify all of this -- is that housing prices are local, and that many localities are relatively unaffected by the housing crash. Nationalizing statistics on both home prices and people's opinions on likely recoveries ignores the regional intensity of the burst bubble. Also, I like to piss Ken off. My point — and it’s really too small a point to justify all of this — is that housing prices are local, and that many localities are relatively unaffected by the housing crash. Nationalizing statistics on both home prices and people’s opinions on likely recoveries ignores the regional intensity of the burst bubble.

Also, I like to piss Ken off.

]]> By: Avelino http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17235 Avelino Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:55:07 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17235 Ditto Ken -- foreclosure rates may not be down nationwide, but that doesn't mean housing prices aren't. In addition, as Matt Yglesias <a href="http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/07/the-cost-of-foreclosure.php" rel="nofollow">points out today</a>, foreclosures affect all home prices in the neighborhood. So, even if foreclosures are at 1% nationwide, that's still driving down the value of homes in a far greater geographic area. Ditto Ken — foreclosure rates may not be down nationwide, but that doesn’t mean housing prices aren’t. In addition, as Matt Yglesias points out today, foreclosures affect all home prices in the neighborhood. So, even if foreclosures are at 1% nationwide, that’s still driving down the value of homes in a far greater geographic area.

]]> By: NewMexiKen http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17234 NewMexiKen Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:03:47 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17234 The S&P Case-Shiller <em>national index</em> reached 189.93 in the second quarter of 2006. It was 128.81 for the first quarter of 2009 (and likely down a little since). That's a 32.1% decrease in prices <em>nationwide</em>. Your neighborhood in Louisville may be holding its own, and indeed most areas aren't like San Bernardino County, but the simple fact is prices are off one-third nationwide and "Today’s prices are likely to be it for a while." The S&P Case-Shiller national index reached 189.93 in the second quarter of 2006. It was 128.81 for the first quarter of 2009 (and likely down a little since). That’s a 32.1% decrease in prices nationwide.

Your neighborhood in Louisville may be holding its own, and indeed most areas aren’t like San Bernardino County, but the simple fact is prices are off one-third nationwide and “Today’s prices are likely to be it for a while.”

]]> By: Tom http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17231 Tom Thu, 09 Jul 2009 05:23:09 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17231 Not re-inflating at all. The bubble was largely a local phenomenon. <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/08-foreclosure-heatmap/" rel="nofollow">Here's a map</a> of foreclosure rates; most of the country (geographically) is plugging along under 1%, which is more or less typical even in good times. It's only in certain areas where foreclosure rates have skyrocketed, driving prices far, far down. My point is that while it may be delusional for someone in, for example, San Bernardino County, California to believe that prices will soon rebound to 2006 levels, in most of the country it's not delusional at all because prices haven't fallen substantially since 2006. The mortgage problem pervades the financial system not because there are bad mortgages spread evenly throughout the land, but because securitized debt backed by bubble-inflated mortgages is in the portfolios of virtually every financial institution in the world. Thus does San Bernardino County's foreclosure problem cause the failure of banks in Iceland. Also the loss of my previous job. Not re-inflating at all. The bubble was largely a local phenomenon. Here’s a map of foreclosure rates; most of the country (geographically) is plugging along under 1%, which is more or less typical even in good times. It’s only in certain areas where foreclosure rates have skyrocketed, driving prices far, far down.

My point is that while it may be delusional for someone in, for example, San Bernardino County, California to believe that prices will soon rebound to 2006 levels, in most of the country it’s not delusional at all because prices haven’t fallen substantially since 2006.

The mortgage problem pervades the financial system not because there are bad mortgages spread evenly throughout the land, but because securitized debt backed by bubble-inflated mortgages is in the portfolios of virtually every financial institution in the world. Thus does San Bernardino County’s foreclosure problem cause the failure of banks in Iceland. Also the loss of my previous job.

]]> By: Avelino http://newmexiken.com/2009/07/idle-thought-38/#comment-17229 Avelino Thu, 09 Jul 2009 04:14:29 +0000 http://newmexiken.com/?p=16790#comment-17229 Or, as Atrios says: "Reinflate the bubble!" Or, as Atrios says: “Reinflate the bubble!”

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