Archive for October 13, 2008

If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It?

FiveThirtyEight.com takes a look at the Bradley Effect.1

With that said, the evidence is pretty strong that the Bradley Effect in fact used to exist in the 1980s and probably through some point in the 1990s. …

The evidence is perhaps equally strong, however, that the Bradley Effect does not exist any longer.

It’s a good, brief look at racism and polling.


1 The Bradley effect: Telling pollsters you voted for an African-American candidate when you did not in order to disguise racial bias. Named for Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who lost the California gubernatorial election in 1982 when some polls, including exit polls, showed him winning handily.

Did you get the memo?

The one telling you to jump back in the stock market BEFORE today?

“[Today's] was the biggest-ever gain in terms of points, though ‘only’ the fifth-largest in the Dow’s 112-year history in terms of the percentage gained in a single session.”

MarketWatch

Best headline of the day, so far

“Fact-Checking the Ayers Allegations: So Wrong, It’s ‘Pants on Fire’ Wrong”

CQ Politics has the facts. Their summary:

In short, this was a mainstream foundation funded by a mainstream, Republican business leader and led by an overwhelmingly mainstream, civic-minded group of individuals. Ayers’ involvement in its inception and on an advisory committee do not make it radical – nor does the funding of programs involving the United Nations and African-American studies.

This attack is false, but it’s more than that – it’s malicious. It unfairly tars not just Obama, but all the other prominent, well-respected Chicagoans who also volunteered their time to the foundation. They came from all walks of life and all political backgrounds, and there’s ample evidence their mission was nothing more than improving ailing public schools in Chicago. Yet in the heat of a political campaign they have been accused of financing radicalism. That’s Pants on Fire wrong.

Congressional Quarterly (CQ) has been considered one of the best, most objective sources on Washington and politics for more than 60 years.

October 13

Today is the birthday

… of Margaret Thatcher, 83.

… of Melinda Dillon. That’s the mom in Close Encounters of the Third Kind. She’s 69. Dillon was nominated for the best supporting actress Oscar for that role and for her part in Absence of Malice.

… of Paul Simon. He’s “Still Crazy After All These Years” at 67.

Paul Simon is among the most erudite and daring songsmiths in popular music. After the breakup of Simon and Garfunkel in 1970, Simon embarked on a fruitful solo career that’s been notable for lyrical acuity, impeccable musicianship and stylistic daring. While Simon and Garfunkel worked largely (but not exclusively) in the folk idiom, Simon the solo artist has roamed wherever his muse has taken him - and that has literally meant around the world. His is not so much a conventional career in music as an odyssey of discovery using “intuitive flashes, synaptic leaps and shorthand logic” (in Simon’s own words) to help him on his way.

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

… of Demond Wilson. Sanford’s son is 62.

… of Sammy Hagar, 61.

However, Van Halen bounced back strong following Roth’s departure. The group recruited Sammy Hagar, who sang and played guitar. Hagar had started out with the hard-rock group Montrose and had a highly successful solo career. He fit well with Van Halen, with whom he was more personally compatible than his predecessor. In fact, the newly harmonious group scored its first Number One album with 5150, on which Hagar handles lead vocals.

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

… of Marie Osmond. She’s 49!

… of Jerry Rice. He’s 46.

… of Kate Walsh, 41. And yes, that’s her in the Cadillac ads. “The real question is, when you turn your car on, does it return the favor?”

… of skater Nancy Kerrigan. She’s 39.

… of Borat. Sacha Baron Cohen is 37.

The woman known as Molly Pitcher was born on October 13, 1754.

An Artillery wife, Mary Hays McCauly (better known as Molly Pitcher) shared the rigors of Valley Forge with her husband, William Hays. Her actions during the battle of Monmouth on June 28, 1778 became legendary. That day at Monmouth was as hot as Valley Forge was cold. Someone had to cool the hot guns and bathe parched throats with water.

Across that bullet-swept ground, a striped skirt fluttered. Mary Hays McCauly was earning her nickname “Molly Pitcher” by bringing pitcher after pitcher of cool spring water to the exhausted and thirsty men. She also tended to the wounded and once, heaving a crippled Continental soldier up on her strong young back, carried him out of reach of hard-charging Britishers. On her next trip with water, she found her artilleryman husband back with the guns again, replacing a casualty. While she watched, Hays fell wounded. The piece, its crew too depleted to serve it, was about to be withdrawn. Without hesitation, Molly stepped forward and took the rammer staff from her fallen husband’s hands. For the second time on an American battlefield, a woman manned a gun. (The first was Margaret Corbin during the defense of Fort Washington in 1776.) Resolutely, she stayed at her post in the face of heavy enemy fire, ably acting as a matross (gunner).

For her heroic role, General Washington himself issued her a warrant as a noncommissioned officer. Thereafter, she was widely hailed as “Sergeant Molly.” A flagstaff and cannon stand at her gravesite at Carlisle, Pennsylvania. A sculpture on the battle monument commemorates her courageous deed.

Fort Sill History

Art Tatum was born on October 13th in 1909.

It’s hard to summon enough superlatives for Tatum’s piano playing: his harmonic invention, his technical virtuosity, his rhythmic daring. The great stride pianist Fats Waller famously announced one night when Tatum walked into the club where Waller was playing, “I only play the piano, but tonight God is in the house.”

NPR : Art Tatum

Leonard Alfred Schneider was born on this date in 1925. We know him as Lenny Bruce.

On April 1, 1964, four New York City vice squad officers attended Bruce’s performance at the Cafe Au Go Go in Greenwich Village. The officers arrested Bruce and owner Howard Solomon following Bruce’s 10:00 P.M. show. Assistant District Attorney Richard Kuh presented a grand jury with a typed partial script of Bruce’s performance including references to Jackie Kennedy trying to “save her ass” after her husband’s assassination, Eleanor Roosevelt’s “nice tits,” sexual intimacy with a chicken, “pissing in the sink,” the Lone Ranger sodomizing Tonto, and St. Paul giving up “fucking” for Lent. The jury indicted Bruce on the obscenity charge. The trial before a three-judge court in New York City that followed stands as a remarkable moment in the history of free speech. Both the prosecution and defense presented parades of well-known witnesses to either denounce Bruce’s performance as the worst sort of gutter humor or celebrate it as a powerful and insightful social commentary. Among the witnesses testifying in support of Bruce were What’s My Line? panelist Dorothy Kilgallen, sociologist Herbert Gans, and cartoonist Jules Feiffer. In the end, the censors won. Voting 2 to 1, the court found Bruce guilty of violating New York’s obscenity laws and sentenced him to “four months in the workhouse.”

Famous Trials: The Lenny Bruce Trial

Bruce died of a drug overdose in 1966.

Stupidest, least self-aware, line of the day

“We had guys out of position. It has to do with our structure and getting our kids prepared. I think our coaches have to take some of the responsibility for that.”

Arizona football coach Mike Stoops.

Yes coach, structure and getting the kids prepared is pretty much up to the coaches. Are you just figuring that out after going 21-31 over 4-1/2 seasons?

The second least competent person in Tucson is Coach Stoops. The least competent person is Tucson is the guy that didn’t fire Coach Stoops last November.

Line of the day

“For the reasons explained in section IV of this report, I find that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act.”

Stephen Branchflower, Report to the Legislative Council

It’s the birthday

… of the White House.

The cornerstone of the White House was laid on October 13, 1792. President John Adams and his wife Abigail moved into the unfinished structure on November 1, 1800, keeping to the scheduled relocation of the capital from Philadelphia. Congress declared the city of Washington in the District of Columbia the permanent capital of the United States on July 16, 1790. …

Constructed of white-grey sandstone that contrasted sharply with the red brick used in nearby buildings, the presidential mansion was called the White House as early as 1809. President Theodore Roosevelt officially adopted the term in 1902.

Source: Library of Congress

During the Truman Administration the White House was gutted except for the outside walls and rebuilt. This photo was taken in April 1950.

White House Construction

Gutted to the outside stone walls, deepened with a new two story basement, reinforced with concrete and 660 tons of steel, and fireproofed, the White House was stabilized. The protection of the historic stone walls was so important that workers dismantled a bulldozer and reassembled it inside to avoid cutting a larger doorway out of the walls. Shafts out of windows carried out debris from the inside of the house, and external stairs were built because the inside was completely empty during the renovation.

Source: The White House Historical Association

The Truman Presidential Museum and Library has a photo essay on the reconstruction — The White House Revealed — though the photos are too small to view much detail.

And this, Washington Didn’t Sleep Here: A White House FAQ

Amen

“Every day, people are straying away from the Church and going back to God.”

Lenny Bruce, who was born on this date in 1925.

Sweetie Birthday

Sofie

The second of the October Sweeties birthdays is today. Lovely Sofia turns five.

Returned to her native Colorado, Sofie has her skis and boots and is ready to hit the slopes later this fall.

Happy Birthday Sofie!

Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman of Princeton and The New York Times — often quoted and cited on these very pages — has won the The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences.

You know, the Nobel Prize in economics.

Harvard Economist Edward L. Glaeser explains why.