Blogger DHinMI at Daily Kos tells us Why Kerry Could Win In A Landslide. It’s a long posting, somewhat rambling, but with several key points, some of which are:
Harrison & Hayes: Only two Presidents lost the popular vote, and both lost the next election. [NewMexiKen notes that John Quincy Adams lost the popular vote to Andrew Jackson and lost the next election. Hayes did not run for re-election.]
• Only one other president presided over four years of net job loss–Herbert Hoover, who lost by 17 points and 413 electoral votes.
• The effect of governors is debated, but most people accept that governors probably give their party’s candidate an extra 0.5%–1.0%. Depending on who’s doing the targeting, there are 19 states that are mentioned as battleground states: AZ, AR, FL, IA, LA, ME, MD, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, TN, WA, WV, and WI. In 2000, 12 of these states had Republican governors, 5 had Democrats, and two governors were independents. This time around, 13 of those states have Democratic governors, and only 6 statehouses are controlled by Republicans.
• Kerry may not be exciting, but he’s highly disciplined and unlikely to make a serious gaffe.
• Rove has shown his tactics over the last five years, so the Kerry campaign has a better idea of what to expect.