A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll taken Feb. 16-17 indicates that if the election were held today, Kerry would be chosen by 55% of likely voters over 43% for Bush. Edwards beats Bush 54%-44%.
Of course, it’s February not November and the Democrats have been getting most of the attention. But, as NewMexiKen posted last week:
Gallup has a long history of asking presidential trial-heat questions in election years. There are comparable data from as far back as 1948 for elections in which an incumbent president was pitted against his eventual challenger in January or February of the election year. While it is not clear at this point who the Democratic nominee will be, Gallup’s historical polling shows it is rare for an incumbent to be trailing any named opponent at this early stage in the election year.